Oregon’s population declines for first time in 30 years, state economist warns of revenue loss (Portland: apartments, mortgage)

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by ccjarider

Quite the stretch on your rebut there buddy. OR is a wide open state with room for tens of thousands.

Not saying it's gonna happen but if if did, it would not be the end of the world.

OMG, there is still space for tens of thousands more people in Oregon? Quick somebody develop it. Don't stop until there is no more space left.

[SkyLark2019]

Not to be too morbid but part of it is a generational thing (Boomers reaching the ends of their lives naturally) and also people selling their houses to retire to other cheaper regions.

One of my co workers is from coastal Oregon and will return b/c he can afford to, but that seems to be the exception nowadays.

[redguard57]

I wonder if the decline is concentrated mostly in Portland? For real guys, PDX went to absolute crap almost overnight in mid-late 2020. If I was living in the city, after 2020 I'd have gotten the hell out.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by redguard57

I wonder if the decline is concentrated mostly in Portland? For real guys, PDX went to absolute crap almost overnight in mid-late 2020. If I was living in the city, after 2020 I'd have gotten the hell out.

Nope.

Here is the county-by-county population data from 2020-2022 sorted by percent change (fastest growing on top. fastest losing on bottom) https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pag...SortDir%3DDesc

Washington County seems to have lost the most total people. About 15,000 compared to Multnomah County's 8,900

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

Yes, that was my point. Oregon is not one of the least dense states. 20% of the states have less population density.

Take away Portland and Oregon would probably be one of the least dense in the country. All those other low density states don't have any major cities. Of the 11 states that are less dense than Oregon, the only one with a major city is Nevada and even Las Vegas metro is smaller than Portland (Las Vegas is 2.2 million, Portland is 2.5 million). Albuquerque, Boise, and Salt Lake City are all less than 1/2 the size of Portland, and the least dense states like Wyoming basically have no cities. The biggest city in Wyoming is Cheyenne with a metro population under 100,000.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Nope.

Here is the county-by-county population data from 2020-2022 sorted by percent change (fastest growing on top. fastest losing on bottom) https://sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pag...SortDir%3DDesc

Washington County seems to have lost the most total people. About 15,000 compared to Multnomah County's 8,900

Interesting that southern Oregon and the coast grew, at the expense of the Columbia Gorge area and Willamette Valley.

Washington county is hard to explain. Overall though, in context the drop doesn't look that bad. Most of these counties grew substantially between 2000 and 2020 and have pulled back a bit..... This might just reflect the weirdness that Covid imposed on us.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by redguard57

Interesting that southern Oregon and the coast grew, at the expense of the Columbia Gorge area and Willamette Valley.

Washington county is hard to explain. Overall though, in context the drop doesn't look that bad. Most of these counties grew substantially between 2000 and 2020 and have pulled back a bit..... This might just reflect the weirdness that Covid imposed on us.

I'm also wondering that. Even if its the first time Oregon's population declined 'as a whole,' some areas are still growing. It could just be a blip on the radar over the long haul vs. a new year over year trend. And the biggest losses are around PDX looking at shear numbers. Washington County used to be hailed the great Silicon Forest. And it is still that at least in part. But techies are apparently leaving for greener pastures and better opportunities.

I'll never fully understand Bend and the surrounding area's wild growth and popularity. That is beyond a boutique recreation mecca like Aspen and other similar places without any other real industry. I mean outdoor sports are a thing. I get that as an old skier, snowboarder and mountain lover. But that only goes so far in terms of supporting a growing population and society. Not everyone can be a river guide, ski instructor or work at REI and afford that crazy runup in RE prices. Maybe in a strange way the wealthier retirees help support the young and restless since they all need services (restaurant workers, retail, grocery, medical, tennis club ball boys, country club lawn care, construction, etc...).

Someone else upthread mentioned people move to Oregon to recreate, not necessary to raise a family. Bend is a good example of that growth along with some of those other areas with no apparent economies beyond tourism/recreation and local basic services/amenities. Maybe that's something Oregon will naturally become more of in its growth areas vs. the next Silicon Valley or little Seattle. The greater Portland metro including Beaverton may naturally shrink a bit more while the others continue to grow. Strangely, while PDX's largest counties dropped, Clark County, right across the river continues to grow. I wonder when we'll also see that natural tipping point occur?





Derek

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

I'm also wondering that. ...
I'll never fully understand Bend and the surrounding area's wild growth and popularity. .... Strangely, while PDX's largest counties dropped, Clark County, right across the river continues to grow. I wonder when we'll also see that natural tipping point occur?

When too much of Portland's problems (Delta Park) bleed across the river.

Or... Tolls

Several coworkers relocated their families from downtown Portland to Clark County, just for safety and schooling. I expect they hope to head back when empty nesters.

Bend has been on the radar for decades of many wet_tside Oregonians who are sick of rain. Then... It became a desired and easy escape from CA. Ironically, several CA immigrant families and friends of ours have left Bend in the last 3 years and all went to Idaho. Too bad. Idaho has pristine areas, but not enough space to absorb all of CA, OR, and WA.

Hood River is very desirable, but essentially landlocked due to River and Forest Service+ CGNSA. Family there have resorted to understand they are stuck in their existing homes. There is no way to move up, while on local and retired income. Moving out, required a relocation to Dufur or Morrow. Very different and much further out.

[NearFantastica]

Seems like natural decrease is happening. Oregon's population grew like crazy in the 90s/early 2000s but has since slowed. California is experiencing the same thing

[texasdiver]

This is what we are actually talking about here, just to give some perspective. We also had another period of zero growth in the early/mid 1980s.