Heavy snow threat for southeast ND Thu night and Friday (Fargo: how much, homes)

[Kamsack]

Hi

Just a heads up...looks like a pretty strong snow event for southeast one half of North Dakota and adjacent South Dakota and northern and western Minnesota for Thursday night into Friday. Attm...best threat for heavy snow would be from Aberdeen to Fargo then to Bemidji areas with potential for 6 to 8 or more. Of course details change and models progging storm development and movement this far out (we are talking 84 hrs from now - Tues aftn) can often change.....but anyone travelling late this week toward Fargo area should monitor weather forecasts closely.

Little to now snow once you get north of Bismarck and west of Devils Lake.

Dan NWS GFK

[bismanpokerclub]

Well first off I wouldn't get too excited about anything a weatherman says. All last week they told us we were going to get up to a foot of snow on the weekend and as late as Sat. night they said we would still get get 7" by noon on Sunday. We got nothing, not one flake. This is north Dakota unless it is July or August you should be prepared for a blizzard (and heck even in July or August it never hurts to be prepared!) Always have your winter kit and a cellphone when traveling, especially out of town.

[Corbay]

Well first off I wouldn't get too excited about anything a weatherman says.

I wouldn't tell Darin that, I think he is the Weatherman

[bismanpokerclub]

Originally Posted by Corbay

Well first off I wouldn't get too excited about anything a weatherman says.

I wouldn't tell Darin that, I think he is the Weatherman

Don't know who Darin is, but I will try not to hold the fact that he is a weatherman against him. Besides, it could be worse, he could be a used car salesman or a politician.

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by bismanpokerclub

Don't know who Darin is, but I will try not to hold the fact that he is a weatherman against him. Besides, it could be worse, he could be a used car salesman or a politician.

Yes sir,, I am an official federal employee meteorologist at the NWS office in Grand Forks ND....but live in East Grand Forks MN. I know the NWS Bismarck office was a bit too aggressive on their warnings on the last one...mainly because one forecast model jumped way too far north with its forecast band of snow. I do think this last one was a bit more complex for sure....parts of northern minnesota received 25+ inches of snow around Park Rapids and Bemidji to the Iron Range. The next one looks pretty certain to hit the southeast part of the state....exactly how much is always difficult...especially the edges of the storm where 50 miles can mean the difference between snow and none as witnessed in Bismarck. Trying to forecast those small details more than 2 days out is very very hard sometimes impossible. Not as hard as forecasting severe weather development....but close. But I love my job and would never do anything else. Glad to know that our warnings for the Northwood ND tornado southwest of Grand Forks was early enough to save many many lives.

Dan

[bismanpokerclub]

Originally Posted by DaninEGF

Yes sir,, I am an official federal employee meteorologist at the NWS office in Grand Forks ND....but live in East Grand Forks MN. I know the NWS Bismarck office was a bit too aggressive on their warnings on the last one...mainly because one forecast model jumped way too far north with its forecast band of snow. I do think this last one was a bit more complex for sure....parts of northern minnesota received 25+ inches of snow around Park Rapids and Bemidji to the Iron Range. The next one looks pretty certain to hit the southeast part of the state....exactly how much is always difficult...especially the edges of the storm where 50 miles can mean the difference between snow and none as witnessed in Bismarck. Trying to forecast those small details more than 2 days out is very very hard sometimes impossible. Not as hard as forecasting severe weather development....but close. But I love my job and would never do anything else. Glad to know that our warnings for the Northwood ND tornado southwest of Grand Forks was early enough to save many many lives.

Dan

If you are the weatherman, who is Darin? And I am not talking about 48 hours out either. The local news on CBS saturday night came on late, I want to say around 10:40-10:50pm and even the NBC local news at 10:00pm Sat. night both GAURANTEED at LEAST 6" probably more like 7" by noon the next day. You are talking about a little over a 12 hour period. I know predicting a foot of snow a week out is going to change, but please off by 7" for a matter of a couple hours. The local guys at least aren't paid for by our tax dollars so I shall try to refrain from going there, but I have had weathermen say it is currently raining and there is not a cloud in the sky! Don't these people have windows even?! The constant warnings every 6-8 hours all year long that end up being nothing is more of a hazzard than anything cause sometime when conditions really ARE serious, nobody pays attention to them! I know its a "cover our butts" mentality that everytime there is a gust of wind to issue a tornado watch but really they need to cut it back to when there really is something brewing.

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by bismanpokerclub

If you are the weatherman, who is Darin? And I am not talking about 48 hours out either. The local news on CBS saturday night came on late, I want to say around 10:40-10:50pm and even the NBC local news at 10:00pm Sat. night both GAURANTEED at LEAST 6" probably more like 7" by noon the next day. You are talking about a little over a 12 hour period. I know predicting a foot of snow a week out is going to change, but please off by 7" for a matter of a couple hours. The local guys at least aren't paid for by our tax dollars so I shall try to refrain from going there, but I have had weathermen say it is currently raining and there is not a cloud in the sky! Don't these people have windows even?! The constant warnings every 6-8 hours all year long that end up being nothing is more of a hazzard than anything cause sometime when conditions really ARE serious, nobody pays attention to them! I know its a "cover our butts" mentality that everytime there is a gust of wind to issue a tornado watch but really they need to cut it back to when there really is something brewing.

For current weather...that is taken at the airport...so when local conditions say rain in Bismarck at 10 pm and 58 degrees that is reported by the automated surface observing system (ASOS) at the airport. So if they are getting a lone shower over the sensor it will say rain...whereas the rest of the city is not. That is just an example of location....there are certain sensors out there that have to be located somewhere for climate record purposes.
You know it isnt where you live and that is what matters.

The main issue with warnings, etc whether it be winter or summer is location. With summer severe storm/tornado warnings....you got to remember if your county is under a warning and YOU do not experience severe weather, how about someone 20 miles northwest of you who is and is in the same county. Now...the NWS issues storm based warnings and our actual text warnings for example would say for example

"The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northern Burleigh county in south central North Dakota until 900 pm CDT. At 815 pm CDT...NWS Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 10 miles north of Bismarck moving east at 25 mph. The storm will affect areas near Regan at 830 pm and Wing at 850 pm. etc etc..."

Now our warning specifically states northern Burleigh county. This is put out over the weather radio and on our statements that the media/emergency management gets and is out on the web. Now...the long standing communication practice from the olden days has each county in each state in the U.S. with a FIP code...a number so that machines can recognize belongs to that county for a warning/statement/etc for emergency purposes. So in this case...when the warning for northern Burleigh county is issued....the automated coding at the top puts in the county code for Burleigh. Most TV markets in our area still go by this now archiac way of displaying weather warnings via their automated scrolls.

So...in the above example....you are watching tv at home...the NWS issues a warning with text specifically saying northern Burleigh county in the warning and towns in the path... but you the viewer at home all you will see is a scroll at the bottom saying "A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Burleigh county in North Dakota" with no mention of northern part only because of the FIP coding that the automated scrollers that most TV stations have pick up on. Each county can have only one number. So that is one big way the public often perceives the "cry wolf" syndrome. Unfortunately...the NWS can be as specific as possible and until the TV station in your market upgrade to newer technology which can display the actual lat/lon box of the warning we do showing the part of the county under a warning there will always be a perceived false alarm that is more than it really is.

I hope this makes sense...I talk about this issue all the time when doing outreach and spotter talks in eastern ND and northwest MN which the NWS Grand Forks cover.

So...just remember...what you see or hear on TV may not be what the NWS issues. TV folks (especially too tall Tom S who was over here at KVLY in Fargo before moving out to Bismarck) can do what they want regarding the forecast and esp snow amounts.

Another point to consider...you live in Bismarck area so it doesnt apply to you so much. But say you are watching a Bismarck or Fargo tv station weather and you see the forecast. The numbers they usually give are for those towns where the station is based....so if you live 80 miles away it is not suprising that the temperatures will be different where you live. The NWS does gridded forecast fields for their entire forecast area (NWS Bismarck covers from Bottineau to Jamestown westward to the MT line) and thus from the web you can get much more specific forecasts for your area if you live outside a major TV station town. Local radio stations outside of bigger towns do a good job in using this "point and click" feature on our website to get the actual temps/sky/wind/etc for their lat/lon site.

I hope this makes sense....but I just wanted to let you know how things are handled and how much or little control the NWS has. The federal NWS agencies were tasked many many years ago with saving lives and property...and fortunately we have improved on this over the years greatly as technology for radars and our understanding of tornadoes and winter wx events have improved greatly. Witness the Northwood Tornado in our area and the numerous Tornadoes in the South and lower Midwest this year.

As with snowfall too...snow amounts can vary greatly we all know that. If a forecast of 7 inches for Bismarck is issued and the snow area instead is 50 miles away...while that may be a bust for Bismarck...50 miles is awfully tough to call....and you do have to realize humans are using all data to try to forecast things....and we do have much data to look at it.
I hope this helps your understanding....

by the way the name I use is DaninEGF as in "Dan in EGF" as I live in EGF MN


If you have further issues you can PM me.

[jojo61397]

Danin--

All I gotta say is the forecasts out here in Minot and Bismarck have been a little off the last few days. Saturday we were supposed to get snow-- it was sunny and near 60.

[SouthernStar]

Ya know, my husband is very interested in weather for some strange reason. So was my grandpa. Geeks

Sorry for the hijack here, but how often do you get tornados and how bad are they? My current town is apparently in the "new tornado alley" and we have had two awful tornados come through my neighborhood-one in 2006 and one a few months ago. Lots of people died, many homes do not have basements or storm shelters. I was hoping I wouldn't have to deal with that anymore when we moved--I'll gladly trade them for snow and blizzards!

[MikeyToo]

Originally Posted by SouthernStar

Ya know, my husband is very interested in weather for some strange reason. So was my grandpa. Geeks

Sorry for the hijack here, but how often do you get tornados and how bad are they? My current town is apparently in the "new tornado alley" and we have had two awful tornados come through my neighborhood-one in 2006 and one a few months ago. Lots of people died, many homes do not have basements or storm shelters. I was hoping I wouldn't have to deal with that anymore when we moved--I'll gladly trade them for snow and blizzards!

Tornadoes can happen in North Dakota, just not as frequently. There was a bad one last year outside of Grand Forks. They are typically more worse(slighty more often) on the eastern side of NoDak than the west. There is some stats that go way back to the 50's about deaths from tornados in North Dakota. They are rare, but can happen. It wouldn't be the determinaing factor for not wanting to move to NoDak, in my opinion!! Since I will be there this summer. The worst thing to worry about weather in North Dakota is a good ol fashion winter blizzered. They are actually easy to prepare for if you know the basic weather prepardness for living in NoDak.