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In 1893 a strong hurricane nicknamed 'The west indian cyclone' made landfall in nyc causing flood waters to reach 6th avenue in Manhattan. It was estimated to have been a cat 3 at landfall with a storm of surge iof nearly 30 ft. If such a storm struck today and it does every 70 years or so, it would spell destruction for the area. Large swaths of the 5 boroughs would be inundated with the rest of us sitting without power.
Last year Irene, this year Sandy. It seems that the Northeast is now getting storms of the caliber that they never saw before. I was looking at a newscast and the weatherman predicted this was the "new normal" for the area because of climate change.
I grew up in the Southeast and hurricanes of Cat 1 were not really that much to worry about so I find it hard to fathom that a Cat 1 could cause so much damage up north. I guess that not being prepared or tested by hurricanes regularly means the infrastructure is not really in place. I mean, was it wise to build subways in a city surrounded by water? Is it wise to have basements along a coast? In the South, nobody has basements and along the Gulf Coast all homes are elevated around 15-20 feet. When they rebuild those Queens/Jersey Shore homes, will they elevate them so they won't be flooded next time?
Then I started to think about what if a Cat 5 hurricane hit NYC like Katrina did to New Orleans? I was thinking there could be millions dead. Just imagine a hurricane that is many times what hit, that's what hit New Orleans back in 2005.
I also remember friends up in the Northeast always saying that "I couldn't live down South because of all the hurricanes." It seems nobody along the East/Gulf coast is immune and they are eating crow.
So my question is, if this is the new normal, is the Northeast going to start adopting some of the building codes of the Gulf Coast (elevating homes, building homes of solid concrete, etc...)?
In any case, I'll be hoping/praying for y'all to recover quickly.
Cat 3+ hurricanes hitting populated areas is fairly uncommon even for FL, TX and LA let alone NY
What they need is mandatory flood insurance and higher premiums for coastal areas and unsafe structures like wood homes
People will always die in these situations. Most for ignoring evacuation orders and some are just very unlucky.
We're too far north to get a Cat 5, the water is just not warm enough to sustain that intensity. The worst case scenario would be a Cat 3 on the same trajectory as Sandy, or maybe impacting 50 miles further north.
Also, NO has some vulnerabilities NYC doesn't, like having a large chunk of the city below sea level. We had to pump out the subways and other tunnels. They had to pump out entire chunks of their city.
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Originally Posted by cBach
Sandy = Cat 1 < Katrina = Cat 5
Imagine if a Cat 5 hit Manhattan, you really think the death toll wouldn't be comparable to Katrina?
We're too far north to get a Cat 5, the water is just not warm enough to sustain that intensity. The worst case scenario would be a Cat 3 on the same trajectory as Sandy, or maybe impacting 50 miles further north.
Also, NO has some vulnerabilities NYC doesn't, like having a large chunk of the city below sea level. We had to pump out the subways and other tunnels. They had to pump out entire chunks of their city.
No, no. A cat 5 is unlikely yes, but not impossible. Sandy had he same intensity as a cat 5 but couldn't organize itself.
one would shudder at the thought of a Cat 5 hurricane hitting the Notheast, insofar as the last Cat 3 to hit was in 1938 it seems unlikely, but...
The water temperatures in the Northeast are never warm enough to support a Category 5 hurricane, but when hurricanes reach higher latitudes they are typically much faster moving than further south, which worsens the storm surge than would typically be seen with whatever category the storm is when it hits.
Sandy did not have the same intensity as a category 5 hurricane. Andrew was the last hurricane to hit the U.S. as a category 5 at landfall. Andrew had a minimum barometric pressure around 920 mb at landfall and was strengthening - Sandy had a pressure of approximately 946 mb at landfall and was weakening. There is a HUGE difference.
Last edited by waccamatt; 11-03-2012 at 10:24 PM..
The water temperatures in the Northeast are never warm enough to support a Category 5 hurricane, but when hurricanes reach higher latitudes they are typically much faster moving than further south, which worsens the storm surge than would typically be seen with whatever category the storm is when it hits.
Sandy did not have the same intensity as a category 5 hurricane. Andrew was the last hurricane to hit the U.S. as a category 5 at landfall. Andrew had a minimum barometric pressure around 920 mb at landfall and was strengthening - Sandy had a pressure of approximately 946 mb at landfall and was weakening. There is a HUGE difference.
Sandy's barometric pressure would typically be found in a cat 3 or 4 storm. I recall Sandy strengthening from a weak cat 1 to nearly a cat 2 overnight as it traversed the warm Gulf Stream, but later weakened as it moved further north. Sandy easily would have been a cat 3 storm if it was a bit earlier in the year.
As for Cat 5 hurricanes, they are rare in any case but to say its impossible is absurd. I would guess that a cat 4 or 5 storm hitting the northeast is probably something like a 1 in 500 year event.
a) Are hurricanes the new normal? Expert on TV said, "Yes, it could certainly happen again because weather patterns are changing."
Agreed, and to add, I think they will get worse over time. Potentially much worse. Agree with those saying a CAt 5 is pretty impossible, but a Cat 3 is probable.
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b) Will building codes keep up with this potential change? Answer is probably not -- it will take decades.
They should take Florida's lead and tough building codes for all new construction and rehab work should be the next bill passed. Anything within a couple of miles of the coast should be required to be built with re-bar reinforced concrete, not plywood. Only hip roofs allowed. Mark my words, insurance companies will begin dropping people or charging much higher premiums to those who live in homes that haven't had the roofs retrofitted to be compliant.
The storms hitting NY/LI have always been there. The was 1938, a bunch in the 1960s, and now a repeat. The only difference in the damage is that more people build on land that should not be built on, that they are closer to the water and that there are more people. There is no "normal". They have always been there... if people continue to build on beaches or close to low-lying areas, you will get worse major damage (I grew up on LI)
A big part of the issue is NYC is basically a series of islands. And very densely populated ones at that. So underground transit does make sense most of the time. Another factor is the subway system was built quite a long time ago without a lot modern features, which weren't available at the time.. Some stations still don't have air conditioning, for example.
I went into work one day last week and there was utter gridlock, which shows what commuting life would be like without the subways. And many people didn't even go in that day and the schools were closed. We have too many people for surface transit. Not to mention, surface transit is much more vulnerable to snow, which is a far more frequent weather event for us than hurricanes. Modernizing the whole system at once would be extremely costly and no one would be able to use them while they were being modernized. I think the city did the smartest thing it could do given the realities it's dealing with. Closing the transit down in advance of the worst saved trains & buses from getting damaged.
I do agree most people need to take preparedness more seriously. I have a friend from the South who's dealt with many hurricanes and before Irene, he posted a preparedness list on Facebook. I usually do have some flashlights, batteries and some non-perishables. But it'd been awhile since I'd replenished it and batteries had expired and even leaked. I went through the list and did as much as I could. I didn't need it, but hung onto it. I used some of the batteries and some of the non-perishables (peanut butter and canned tuna are things I normally eat anyway).
When we got the warning for Sandy, the Friday night before the storm after I got home from work, I replenished what needed to be replenished, topped off the gas tank and refilled my prescriptions. I charged my phone fully the whole day Monday and put some ice packs in my freezer Sunday. I wasn't in a flooded area/evacuation zone, but I did lose power for most of the week.
I've had people joke with me that I take preparedness too seriously. I check my supplies for every prediction of a hurricane, blizzard or Nor'Easter. A lot of people criticized the city for shutting the MTA down during Irene. But I think Sandy showed why we need to take this seriously. The problem is by the time you know for sure it's going to be a bad hit, it's too late to get people out and it's too late to save the equipment by getting it to higher ground.
I do think there are a few things I need to add. I'm thinking of getting a lock for my gas cap for my car. My windows are old and not in the greatest shape. They held. I'm at least going to price hurricane rated ones to see what the price difference is.
A big part of the issue is NYC is basically a series of islands. And very densely populated ones at that. So underground transit does make sense most of the time. Another factor is the subway system was built quite a long time ago without a lot modern features, which weren't available at the time.. Some stations still don't have air conditioning, for example.
I went into work one day last week and there was utter gridlock, which shows what commuting life would be like without the subways. And many people didn't even go in that day and the schools were closed. We have too many people for surface transit. Not to mention, surface transit is much more vulnerable to snow, which is a far more frequent weather event for us than hurricanes. Modernizing the whole system at once would be extremely costly and no one would be able to use them while they were being modernized. I think the city did the smartest thing it could do given the realities it's dealing with. Closing the transit down in advance of the worst saved trains & buses from getting damaged.
I do agree most people need to take preparedness more seriously. I have a friend from the South who's dealt with many hurricanes and before Irene, he posted a preparedness list on Facebook. I usually do have some flashlights, batteries and some non-perishables. But it'd been awhile since I'd replenished it and batteries had expired and even leaked. I went through the list and did as much as I could. I didn't need it, but hung onto it. I used some of the batteries and some of the non-perishables (peanut butter and canned tuna are things I normally eat anyway).
When we got the warning for Sandy, the Friday night before the storm after I got home from work, I replenished what needed to be replenished, topped off the gas tank and refilled my prescriptions. I charged my phone fully the whole day Monday and put some ice packs in my freezer Sunday. I wasn't in a flooded area/evacuation zone, but I did lose power for most of the week.
I've had people joke with me that I take preparedness too seriously. I check my supplies for every prediction of a hurricane, blizzard or Nor'Easter. A lot of people criticized the city for shutting the MTA down during Irene. But I think Sandy showed why we need to take this seriously. The problem is by the time you know for sure it's going to be a bad hit, it's too late to get people out and it's too late to save the equipment by getting it to higher ground.
I do think there are a few things I need to add. I'm thinking of getting a lock for my gas cap for my car. My windows are old and not in the greatest shape. They held. I'm at least going to price hurricane rated ones to see what the price difference is.
Great post!
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