Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I currently live in Texas but two years ago I bought a house near Las Vegas (NM). I spent as much time as I could there and the long term plan was to move there permanently. Then the Hermit Peak fire happened and it destroyed my house. Not just that fire but in general reading about the many other fires in the southwest, the massive drought, the drying of lakes, etc., I have been wondering if I should try to rebuild in NM (which I loved before the fire charred my house and my soul) or find somewhere else to live that doesn’t have a water problem (maybe Appalachia). The governments of the southwest seem to be stuck whistling past the graveyard regarding the megadrought. What say you?
Depends on where your house was situated. You don't give us any indication of what general area it's in so it's hard to say. If it's in a rural area and you like it there I would consider rebuilding however the US Forest Service did not show much consideration about fire setting on a windy day. Rebuilding is always a risk and in this case I just don't know what I would do. If you're close to hermit Peak it's an absolutely lovely area I had a gorgeous view of it when I lived there and I really miss it.
It also depends upon your insurance company and if they'll allow you to rebuild elsewhere or require you to rebuild in the same spot.
I am so sorry for your loss. I know a young woman whose historical ranch was destroyed. I'm still trying to find out what happened to all the horses.
Wow, I'm sorry about your fire losses. I passed through Las Vegas a week after the fire started and never dreamt it would grow to the size it did.
Supposedly, in the big picture, our climate moisture is dependent upon what is going on in the Pacific Ocean and it seems like the scientific jury is still out on that question. As a region, the southwest is arid and prone to droughts. We also gain moisture from Pacific storms that pump moisture up from Baja California. If climate change brings more Pacific storms, we might see an increase in average rainfall or winter snowpack. If there are fewer storms, we might be drier.
I saw a recent research report that went back eons and found a period of time similar to what is expected here. At that time the southwest was much wetter than now. Other research says we will have less moisture. I'm not sure what climate "viability" means in regard to the immediate future or our lifespan. We had a severe drought and a robust monsoon season.
The Hermit Peak fires up near Las Vegas were unusual, but we had two of the state's worst fires in one year during a 1200-year drought.
People who live in close proximity to dense and fuel-laden forests will run the risk of fires whether there is ample moisture or not. I live in view of the Jemez Mountains and there are fires there almost every year and big ones every few years. The Las Conchas Fire moved so fast it burned almost an acre a second for the first 14 hours.
Yes, it's actually good for re-forestation, just terrible that people have been severely compromised and destroyed.
In my opinion the controlled burn was a huge mistake but it happens because personnel are only human.
Your post SunGrins reminded me of thousands of years ago when Southern California was completely riparian. People growing up now have no idea. I myself had no idea having grown up there experiencing it a chaparral. Until I visited the Tongva Village recreation at the California Botanic Garden, when it first went in. It went away for a while and then came back in a scaled-down version. The whole thing just blew me away. With suburban growth and tens of thousands of people putting in landscaping, pools and spas, the area has become more humid. It was quite noticeable actually after I moved back to inland SoCal after living in NorCal for many years.
Can you point us to the research about the SW and New Mexico in particular? I'd be really interested to read it. When I lived in the plains just east of the Sangre de Cristos we had quite a bit of rain, but the two years previous had been terrible, with many peoples' wells drying up. There was a lot of paranoia about that amongst some residents who were on a well. Now there's another drought. I really hope the monsoons and the Pacific storms can help restore northern New Mexico. They really need it. especially now.
Can you point us to the research about the SW and New Mexico in particular?
Take a look at this article in "Wired" that has a link to the actual published research. This is the first one I have seen that seems to point to a wet scenario for the Southwest.
That's quite an article. Greater rain could certainly help rural areas in the sense that there would be more grassland for grazing cattle (cattle industry is growing in north central New Mexico) but obviously devastating for developed areas.
When I lived on the border of North Phoenix and Scottsdale, there was a monsoon storm that destroyed homes in Chandler. Citizens were screaming about upgrading infrastructure and how the City and County had long refused to take such steps. The following year there was another storm with similar damage and a little bit of effort was made to fix the storm drains in and around the canals in north and central Phoenix. My car was (and other cars were) almost washed away on Tatum Blvd., but I made it safely into a gas station parking lot. The city and county has apparently long adamantly refused to upgrade the infrastructure that handles excessive rainfall.
This kind of thing happens when the infrastructure further south of Phoenix does not support the amount of rainfall. Happens in too many places. Weather trends had been a certain way for so long that developers didn't see a problem with the way it was planned and implemented. I grew up in Southern California where housing complexes went in by the thousands with little thought of problems in the future. Just "slap it up" and I used to hear many people say back in the 60's and 70's and especially 80's. We were fortunate to live in a very well built house (built late 50's) but many houses after that were and are very flimsy let alone the larger problem of infrastructure.
The article is rather concerning in that increased vegetation from increased rainfall leads to more devastating fires.
As to the OP's original question, it's really a conundrum. The firefighters were able to keep the fire at bay at United World College in Montezuma, and from descending upon the town of Mora from the south. However, the fires ravaged resort area Rociada and Pendaries and nearby historical ranches in the area south of Mora. My former veterinarian's rural compound in Sapello was saved from the fire, but it came extremely close. Those firefighters are heroes.
I was in the bar at the Hotel Castaneda in Las Vegas and there were some local ranch people sitting there counting off the ranches and homes that were likely doomed, including some of their own or very close. That was in mid-April, long before the fire really took off. You could see the fire up in the canyons but nothing like what it turned into. I suspect their count was very low when it was all over. That fire wasn't even fully contained until August 21.
More rain brings needed moisture but also more lightning and potentially more fires.
My younger sister and I have been pondering this question for the last six or seven years.
We both own houses in Maine. She still lives there while I bailed for Deming, New Mexico, then Ojai, California – our hometown – following teaching jobs, and now have tenants in my Maine house.
Our retirement plan – or rather, our Third Act Employment™️ plan – is to haul horses commercially. She has been moonlighting at this while she works to keep lobstermen from shooting each other as a Maine Marine Patrol officer. Mostly retired, I have a part-time teaching job, and dabble in teaching riding and moving horses, too.
Best case scenario, we have a foot in the West and a foot in Maine. We cannot touch California's property prices on retired public servant pensions, so New Mexico, a place we both love, seems like a possibility. Maybe because we lived through fires as kids and I came back to Ojai just in time for the Thomas Fire, fire doesn't spook me nearly as much as running my well dry.
My well in Maine is reliable, and its water is delicious. While I may have just talked myself out of buying in the southwest, I have seen horse friendly places east of ABQ that look affordable, or at least comparable to my Maine property, specifically around Stanley, maybe north to Galisteo.
My younger sister and I have been pondering this question for the last six or seven years.
We both own houses in Maine. She still lives there while I bailed for Deming, New Mexico, then Ojai, California – our hometown – following teaching jobs, and now have tenants in my Maine house.
Our retirement plan – or rather, our Third Act Employment™️ plan – is to haul horses commercially. She has been moonlighting at this while she works to keep lobstermen from shooting each other as a Maine Marine Patrol officer. Mostly retired, I have a part-time teaching job, and dabble in teaching riding and moving horses, too.
Best case scenario, we have a foot in the West and a foot in Maine. We cannot touch California's property prices on retired public servant pensions, so New Mexico, a place we both love, seems like a possibility. Maybe because we lived through fires as kids and I came back to Ojai just in time for the Thomas Fire, fire doesn't spook me nearly as much as running my well dry.
My well in Maine is reliable, and its water is delicious. While I may have just talked myself out of buying in the southwest, I have seen horse friendly places east of ABQ that look affordable, or at least comparable to my Maine property, specifically around Stanley, maybe north to Galisteo.
Any thoughts from Team NM?
I am far from a doomsday seeker. I can only go off of what water tables are at where I live (Las Cruces). The main issue we have here in my view is the abundance and continual growth of pecan trees. Pecans cannot grow unless there's a lot of water. At some point, there's going to have to be a hard cap in my view when it comes to harvest. But there's a problem with that: people love em! And keep eating them.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
