Does this even exist? (Help finding a place to live) (Priceville: homes, unemployment)

[y8tiger]

I know people that have moved from Madison is the past couple years to East Limestone County, Elkmont, Ardmore, New Market, and Taft, TN.

I have been thinking that we may someday move out between Fayetteville and Winchester, TN. This would put us in the middle between Arnold AFB and Redstone Arsenal.

[dijkstra]

Originally Posted by rnc76

Madison has exploded in the last couple years. I doubt North Marshall, Morgan or southern TN has seen quite the increase Madison has.

The entire area within commute to Huntsville has seen a rapid increase in property values. There is literally almost no inventory of homes or lots available within a one hour drive of Huntsville. Everything in Marshall County is also selling with multiple offers above asking price right now. There are going to be a lot of people with negative equity in homes when the market corrects. There are a lot of them that will take probably 10 years to break even again.

[harry chickpea]

The country north and west of Athens actually easily fits within the one hour drive, but there is a psychological block. The north Athens exit to 65 requires you drive north at least a half mile to go south, and of course getting on 565 means driving south almost to Decatur. Even so, the trip is fast - under 45 minutes more or less. I doubt there will be much developer action until there is a new exit around Piney Chapel in the far future. The overpass is already there, but traffic doesn't dictate a need yet.

The area immediately north of Athens along the old L&N railroad line is an industrial area that I suspect is about to explode. It still has the railroad spur - not something that many of the lots near 565 have - and that northern Athens exit to the interstate is only lightly used and could be easy to get to if a single traffic light is installed on Elm Street and the road going up towards Athens Utilities.

[y8tiger]

Originally Posted by harry chickpea

The country north and west of Athens actually easily fits within the one hour drive, but there is a psychological block...

There is an interesting older planned community there called the Elkmont Rural Village.

[lpc123]

Originally Posted by dijkstra

The problem is it is a great time to sell but a terrible time to buy. Sure you may make a good chunk on your current home because it increased in value but you will have to turn around and overpay for your new place which will then drop in value in the next one to three years when this bubble ends.

I am not convinced it is a bubble. Why? First inflation. After home prices skyrocketed during the 1970s inflation period, prices never returned anywhere near where they were before the inflation began. I predict we are entering another such inflationary phase. Second, the housing bubble of 2008-09 was largely caused by ridiculously loose lending standards encouraged by the Government. Lending standards today are far stronger, and by historical standards, they may be stronger than they have ever been. Lastly, we have supply chain and labor issues. This pipeline bottleneck will take time to open, and even after that, it will take more time before enough supply is actually available to meet the demand for new homes. That does not look like a bubble to me.

Final note: if inflation is persistent for years ahead (I read today's Fed meeting minutes), a mortgage and home are a good inflation hedge. Borrow today at 3%. If mortgage rates climb you are "making money" on the cheaper loan.

[HB2HSV]

Originally Posted by lpc123

I am not convinced it is a bubble. Why? First inflation. After home prices skyrocketed during the 1970s inflation period, prices never returned anywhere near where they were before the inflation began. I predict we are entering another such inflationary phase. Second, the housing bubble of 2008-09 was largely caused by ridiculously loose lending standards encouraged by the Government. Lending standards today are far stronger, and by historical standards, they may be stronger than they have ever been. Lastly, we have supply chain and labor issues. This pipeline bottleneck will take time to open, and even after that, it will take more time before enough supply is actually available to meet the demand for new homes. That does not look like a bubble to me.

Final note: if inflation is persistent for years ahead (I read today's Fed meeting minutes), a mortgage and home are a good inflation hedge. Borrow today at 3%. If mortgage rates climb you are "making money" on the cheaper loan.

We bought our home in Madison in late 2008. It was a good time to buy. Why? Well, the builders overbuilt because the forecasted BRAC relocation did not happen. So the builders were offerring all kinds of incentives just to off-load the inventory. But more importantly, we needed to buy! We just moved to Huntsville and wanted to settle down.

What about the real estate downturn from 2008 to 2012? If you're already living in a home, does it really matter? It would only matter if suddenly you need to sell. Again, if I recalled, it had a mild impact on Huntsville real estate. All real estate market are local and Huntsville was no different. What happened in NYC, Boston, SF, LA do not applied to Huntsville.

What's more important questions to ask are: Do you need to buy? Will you be able to stay for the next 5 -7 years? If so, a mortgage rate up & down upto 1% should not really affect your decision.

Now going forward, will the mortgage rate go up? Yes! It has already gone up. Keep in mind the mortgage rate does not correlate with the Fed Reserve rate. If the bank anticipates the Fed will raise rate by March, they will raise it today! Do you anticipate the market "softens" and maybe seeing a bit of price drop? Maybe, or this may push buyers to get off the fence and buy in anticipating further rate hikes. Are you willing to take that gamble? Like I said, in the overall scheme of things, the minor rate/ price variation should not affect your decision.

[dijkstra]

Originally Posted by lpc123

I am not convinced it is a bubble. Why? First inflation. After home prices skyrocketed during the 1970s inflation period, prices never returned anywhere near where they were before the inflation began. I predict we are entering another such inflationary phase. Second, the housing bubble of 2008-09 was largely caused by ridiculously loose lending standards encouraged by the Government. Lending standards today are far stronger, and by historical standards, they may be stronger than they have ever been. Lastly, we have supply chain and labor issues. This pipeline bottleneck will take time to open, and even after that, it will take more time before enough supply is actually available to meet the demand for new homes. That does not look like a bubble to me.

Final note: if inflation is persistent for years ahead (I read today's Fed meeting minutes), a mortgage and home are a good inflation hedge. Borrow today at 3%. If mortgage rates climb you are "making money" on the cheaper loan.

Home prices have increased at an astounding rate in this area in the past year to year and a half. It is partly demand due to jobs being created here, partly due to super low mortgage rates and partly because the economy has been so good (where this recession is they speak of on media talking head so called news, I don't know). A couple of the main contributors to inflated home prices has been material prices skyrocketing to triple and even quadruple or more in the past year and also labor shortages causing increases in construction costs.

Those are the reasons for the costs of homes going up. Now you have bidding wars on homes because there is currently an inventory shortage due to the aforementioned labor shortages and material shortages and delays due to costs. People bidding houses up tens of thousands of dollars above asking price is a bubble if I have ever seen one. The big question is will inflation, demand and mortgage rates all stay in the same plane where home prices will hold up and maybe even increase or will one or multiples of those three things change course. It only takes one to change the course of home pricing.

You are right on inflation for sure. The government is always behind on the data and they are just now starting to see and speak about the inflation while those of us living in the real world have been seeing the inflation for a year. They now realize shutting the economy down due to Covid was a huge mistake that is creating long term economic effects with one of them being a sudden spike in inflation.

[rnc76]

Originally Posted by dijkstra

The entire area within commute to Huntsville has seen a rapid increase in property values. There is literally almost no inventory of homes or lots available within a one hour drive of Huntsville. Everything in Marshall County is also selling with multiple offers above asking price right now. There are going to be a lot of people with negative equity in homes when the market corrects. There are a lot of them that will take probably 10 years to break even again.

I realize that but I also think no location has seen the % increase that Madison has, except perhaps a few prime locations in Huntsville. Moving from Madison to a more rural area will still end up being a net positive financially.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by HB2HSV

We bought our home in Madison in late 2008. It was a good time to buy. Why? Well, the builders overbuilt because the forecasted BRAC relocation did not happen. So the builders were offerring all kinds of incentives just to off-load the inventory. But more importantly, we needed to buy! We just moved to Huntsville and wanted to settle down.

What about the real estate downturn from 2008 to 2012? If you're already living in a home, does it really matter? It would only matter if suddenly you need to sell. Again, if I recalled, it had a mild impact on Huntsville real estate. All real estate market are local and Huntsville was no different. What happened in NYC, Boston, SF, LA do not applied to Huntsville.

What's more important questions to ask are: Do you need to buy? Will you be able to stay for the next 5 -7 years? If so, a mortgage rate up & down upto 1% should not really affect your decision.

Now going forward, will the mortgage rate go up? Yes! It has already gone up. Keep in mind the mortgage rate does not correlate with the Fed Reserve rate. If the bank anticipates the Fed will raise rate by March, they will raise it today! Do you anticipate the market "softens" and maybe seeing a bit of price drop? Maybe, or this may push buyers to get off the fence and buy in anticipating further rate hikes. Are you willing to take that gamble? Like I said, in the overall scheme of things, the minor rate/ price variation should not affect your decision.

I sold a house outside of Huntsville in 2010 and made a nice profit on it. The economic downturn didn't seem to affect anything at that point.

Originally Posted by rnc76

I realize that but I also think no location has seen the % increase that Madison has, except perhaps a few prime locations in Huntsville. Moving from Madison to a more rural area will still end up being a net positive financially.

All about the school system. People want to get out of Huntsville, unless they live in the popular areas like a previous poster mentioned. Madison shields you from that, because you never know when the city might annex something.

[rnc76]

Originally Posted by Mississippi Alabama Line

All about the school system. People want to get out of Huntsville, unless they live in the popular areas like a previous poster mentioned. Madison shields you from that, because you never know when the city might annex something.

Yeah, Madison for a long time has been the go to location for transplants due to the schools. The drastic run up in Madison started with the desegregation drama in Huntsville, prior to the widespread real estate explosion in 2020-2021. Re-zoning issues pushed a lot of families out of Huntsville to Madison or private schools.