Is high housing price and inflation a big deterrent for relocation now? (Dallas: sale, real estate)

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by hanex1

Property taxes in Frisco (assuming FISD, Collin County) are ~2%, even dipped below 2% this year to 1.9XXX%.

Whereas in Prosper OTOH, it is 2.5% to 2.7% depending on the subdivision with PID or MUD etc.

Not sure where you got 3% from.

I was not talking just about Frisco, but lets assume 2.3% across the board. on 800K home that is still $1500 a month. You're saving $500 compared to my example which does not go far these days at all.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

I don't doubt that. My concern is that considering raising prices and if that median household income in Frisco has not gone up from 130K - will feel a pinch. Maybe not now but within couple years as their home ownership costs increase. For example my home insurance this year has gone up considerably apparently due to claims made by 'the freeze'. My car insurance has also gone up 60% because apparently DFW is now one of most dangerous cities to drive in USA. Any work on the house the prices have also gone up.

Its gradual increase that bites away, it does not hit immediately. You feel it when you need to call a handy man that charges double of what 2 years ago. When you need to replace the roof or change your car out.

Well, unless the northern suburbs make a strong commitment to preserving and creating more affordable housing (like tax credit apartments, PFC developments, etc.) then the residents will have to understand that their dining and services may become a lot more expensive - businesses will have to pay their employees a lot more because folks who are willing to work for low and moderate wages won't be able to live anywhere near these employers. Plus it will get more difficult to attract folks like young unmarried teachers etc. But, we all know, that kind of housing invites the NIMBYs, who vote. See: California.

[DFWGuy422]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

I don't doubt that. My concern is that considering raising prices and if that median household income in Frisco has not gone up from 130K - will feel a pinch. Maybe not now but within couple years as their home ownership costs increase. For example my home insurance this year has gone up considerably apparently due to claims made by 'the freeze'. My car insurance has also gone up 60% because apparently DFW is now one of most dangerous cities to drive in USA. Any work on the house the prices have also gone up.

Its gradual increase that bites away, it does not hit immediately. You feel it when you need to call a handy man that charges double of what 2 years ago. When you need to replace the roof or change your car out.

Like I said, considering all the expenses of living in a SFH in North Suburbs 130K really pays for frugal lifestyle once all these costs increases hit within couple years even if you own your home outright and hopefully don't go on holidays every year or have kids to put through college.

The families with $130k HHI probably would feel a pinch like the one you described, but if the value of the home has skyrocketed, they could downsize to save $.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Well, unless the northern suburbs make a strong commitment to preserving and creating more affordable housing (like tax credit apartments, PFC developments, etc.) then the residents will have to understand that their dining and services may become a lot more expensive - businesses will have to pay their employees a lot more because folks who are willing to work for low and moderate wages won't be able to live anywhere near these employers. Plus it will get more difficult to attract folks like young unmarried teachers etc. But, we all know, that kind of housing invites the NIMBYs, who vote. See: California.

If you look at my post history this is the ticking timebomb I was talking about. Unlike NYC which can get people from low cost of living areas to 5th ave within 30 minutes for couple dollars on public transportation - Frisco/North suburbs don't have that.

So at this rate, soon the Mi Cocina in Frisco will cost considerably more than its equivalent in Manhattan. 3% Tax will not seem so far fetched because the teachers/janitors will also make more than in Manhattan.

There is no other option as rent control etc is not going to work due to politics.

[DFWGuy422]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

If you look at my post history this is the ticking timebomb I was talking about. Unlike NYC which can get people from low cost of living areas to 5th ave within 30 minutes for couple dollars on public transportation - Frisco/North suburbs don't have that.

So at this rate, soon the Mi Cocina in Frisco will cost considerably more than its equivalent in Manhattan. 3% Tax will not seem so far fetched because the teachers/janitors will also make more than in Manhattan.

There is no other option as rent control etc is not going to work due to politics.

There are apartment complexes all over Frisco and even West Plano up and down Preston Road. I admittedly have no idea how much rent would be there, but I can't imagine that it mirrors the ultra-high prices of the homes there. I don't think this worker shortage is going to be as drastic as you think it will be

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by DFWGuy422

The families with $130k HHI probably would feel a pinch like the one you described, but if the value of the home has skyrocketed, they could downsize to save $.

I do not see the proof its happening yet because I think either salary's in Frisco have doubled as some have proposed or the price increases have not begun to bite yet as they are rolling out slowly.

If they do start selling, then the market will see a huge inventory boost which may cause a crash. Because there is far more people in Frisco/Prosper/Celina who already own than those who came in Covid times with their bags of cash.

Unless people have increased their HH to 200K+ and still have those 30yr notes from 5 years ago on their 500K homes that are now 850K+ they will be forced to sell to preserve lifestyle quality. People moved to Texas to have more disposable income rather than be house poor like many in NYC.

Once again, even 500K note with 20% down and now new taxes due to value - its 3.7K P and I + insurance. Add another $300 for bills in the very least and you are at $4K. Now add 2 car ownerships once your current cars go out - you're at $6K. Your 130K HHI is $7K take home. You still need to pay for groceries that have gone up, trips, medical bills, college tuition etc.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by DFWGuy422

There are apartment complexes all over Frisco and even West Plano up and down Preston Road. I admittedly have no idea how much rent would be there, but I can't imagine that it mirrors the ultra-high prices of the homes there. I don't think this worker shortage is going to be as drastic as you think it will be

From what I hear you will struggle to find 1 bedroom below 1.5K all in (bills etc). Quality of life is utterly miserable as they are made out of paper and you can hear your neighbors on all side sneeze. So 1.5K for rent, $1K for car.

$10 an hour is like $1200 take home if I remember correctly.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Well the whole situation is rather interesting, the market in last 3 months especially in northern suburbs has made even more jumps. I think Frisco Median Sale home is approaching 800K depending on which website you look for data. One website puts it up at 860K - with November 2021 being at 650K so a 200K jump in couple of months.

I think it may take years to really start breaking down, a generation of new home buyers that is over-stretched and unable to have much disposable income may echo on the whole economy in the future. So far it seems the balancing act works because majority of people bought prior to the market craze.

My wonder and question is how will north suburbs fill jobs on the whole spectrum especially in service industry. Cars/Tolls/Gas/Rent are all super expensive these days. Where is the average worker for Mi Cocina from Frisco will come? If average used car price is 26K (necessity in DFW metro for work) and Frisco rentals are out of control as well. If Frisco Median house continues on current pace and gets to 1.3M next year for example (for what used to be a 500K home). How many more people from IT sector etc will just move elsewhere or stay in California/NYC for example.

House taxes in Frisco and other north suburbs are getting very close to %3 annually. By the time you pay your mortgage in 30 years, you would have bought 3 houses. One for yourself, One for Bank and Other for The county. I will be eagerly awaiting to see what Frisco median household income has become, my friends are telling me that it has at least doubled from the 2019 127K amount.

You’re confusing a few metrics:

1. The median selling price is not the median home value. The median sales price could very well be $800k right now but that is because there is an extreme scarcity of homes trading on the real estate market. Historically about 5% of homes sell nationally in a given year. A healthy market used to be about 6 months of inventory….I think everyone would be thrilled to get up to 3 months of inventory right now. Frisco has around 80,000 households which would mean 4,000 sales in a year or 333 per month. Healthy inventory would be around 1,000-1,200 homes for sale at any given time. There are currently SEVENTY FIVE homes for sale (many of which are under contract and thus not really available anymore). Frisco needs 13X more homeowners to decide to sell their homes ASAP in order for the market stats to reflect the true median home price. You can’t look at 7% of the picture and know what the other 93% looks like. Frisco’s median home value is probably in the $500k range.

2. No way the median HHI has doubled in two years. There aren’t enough new residents to move the needle THAT much. $260k would make Frisco the highest HHI in all of DFW, above Southlake and Highland Park. Simply not possible with as large a population as Frisco has.


3. Frisco knows it has a housing affordability issue w/r/t service industry workers. Many commute from less expensive nearby suburbs like The Colony, Lewisville, & Carrollton. Or drive further from near Denton or out towards Anna / Melissa / Farmersville. Lack of public transit in CoCo is a problem.

4. Property tax is nowhere near 3% in Frisco or anywhere else in the metroplex, save for Coppell. It’s closer to 2% and many school districts and taxing entities have lowered tax rates in the past year or two because of skyrocketing values. I live in Dallas and our tax rates were just lowered again because the values went up. Also, interest rates have been at all time lows and currently are still at historical low ranges. My first place was over 6% interest in the mid 2000’s. If you finance your home, you will pay a large amount of $$ in interest over 30 years….this has always been true and is irrelevant to this conversation.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

From what I hear you will struggle to find 1 bedroom below 1.5K all in (bills etc). Quality of life is utterly miserable as they are made out of paper and you can hear your neighbors on all side sneeze. So 1.5K for rent, $1K for car.

$10 an hour is like $1200 take home if I remember correctly.

Hardly any businesses are paying $10/hr anymore. Most fast food places are $15-18/hr for cashiers right now.

Also, someone making $10/hr is a fool to spend $1000/mo on a car. You can still lease a cheap car like a Honda Civic for $220/mo. Add $200 of gas/tolls + $120 for car insurance and it’s like half of what you’re insisting.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by 75214Dad

Are restaurant jobs harder to staff in Frisco? Genuinely curious. I don’t know if the percent of workers using public transit makes a difference anymore.

Frisco is home to people in the 10-25% income bracket. It will continue to be so in the near future and prices will move accordingly. $1.3M by next year seems unlikely, though.

Labor actually is and has been more expensive in CoCo compared to Dallas. We know the Fish City guys and their Shops at Legacy location has their highest labor costs of their entire chain. I think I have read similar from M Crowd group (Mi Cocina owners).