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A tier above? Are you discussing the city proper because by metro area, these two are not a tier above. They are in the same tier.
Yeah, it's mentioned better in the post above. But Dallas-Fort Worth-metroplex-whatever MSA is around 30% more populous than DC/Atlanta/Philly/Miami. Houston is around 20% larger. Both are growing much faster as well.
It's a situation that I've not had to date in my life experience...it was always 'The Big Three' and all the rest. In the last few years, however, the Big Two of Texas have shaken up the status quo:
(Based on 2023 Census estimates)
New York–Newark–Jersey City, NY-NJ MSA 19,498,249
Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA MSA 12,799,100
Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, FL MSA 6,183,199
Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, AZ MSA 5,070,110
So now, you have Dallas-Ft Worth trailing Chicago by only 1.1M MOL and ahead of Houston by about 600K. Houston leads Atlanta by just over 1.2M. The 'growth gap' between Chicago/Dallas is closing; the gap between Houston/Atlanta is widening. Then you have a horse race between the next tier of MSAs: Atlanta, DC, Philadelphia and Miami are all clustered around about 100K of each other.
When you consider that the gap between Chicago and Dallas population is smaller than that of Houston and Atlanta, it tends to change the perception long held about the Big 10 rankings. Either the Texas giants are creating a tier of their own, or they are poised to join the Big Boys in the years to come. Time will tell.
My take on MSA measurements here are that they're pretty good as a general rule, but there are some instances where there are some bits that are a bit odd when you have sizable MSAs very close to each other.
For LA, I think it should be some millions higher since the bulk of the Inland Empire's population is immediately adjacent to the LA County border and part of its contiguous sprawl through the San Gabriel and Pomona Valleys as well as corridors to Orange County. LA is at this point substantially more populous than Chicagoland.
San Francisco Bay Area function as a single area and it's odd to split that up as the MSA does. The traditional nine county Bay Area cooperates together and there is definitely a regional identity even if there is some infighting.
DC is tricky as there populous, shared counties that have traditionally been Baltimore's sphere, but DC's growing clout has meant a sizable share of commuters for DC area jobs are living in those counties. Meanwhile, major employers located in these counties are often more aligned with the general business of DC than they are with Baltimore such as the Fort Meade complex in Anne Arundel County.
I think it's true that a gap is opening up between the two Texas metropolitan areas and Philadelphia / Atlanta / Miami, but I think the OP has it right in putting up the San Francisco Bay Area and DC. As I was saying earlier, the interesting thing is that this past decade or two has seen a change from a prominent overall number three (city population, urban area, MSA, CSA, metropolitan GDP, media market, etc.) to one where all these categories are split or likely to be split by 2040.
The SF's edge on DC as it comes to CSA is two-fold. One, it's the San Francisco Bay Area so even it's colloquial title refers to SF. Second, San Jose is not historically relevant nationally even while growing as the agricultural-manufacturing hub of the region. It's similar to Ft Worth in that regards, overshadowed nationally by the more well-known neighbor.
Tier above may be too strong a word but I was speaking strictly in a population sense. I am in DC and don't think any of the Texas cities beats DC in urbanity. However, Dallas and Houston are clearly no longer in the 6 million club that the others are in. There is a clear separation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heel82
Yeah, it's mentioned better in the post above. But Dallas-Fort Worth-metroplex-whatever MSA is around 30% more populous than DC/Atlanta/Philly/Miami. Houston is around 20% larger. Both are growing much faster as well.
Facts!!!!
Perceptions lag statistics. DFW and Houston, population-wise, has clearly pulled away from the 6M metros.
I don't think the general public would pay attention to that, but that should be common knowledge to us on City Data who break down stats for weeks after they are released.
There's nothing showing that DFW and Houston has slowed since the 2023 stats came out and nothing showing the other 6M Metros have caught up pace. I would bet good money that they are still growing by 150k (+20k for DFW, -20k for Houston).
Perceptions are slow but I think 17 years is enough time for perceptions to catch up.
Perceptions lag statistics. DFW and Houston, population-wise, has clearly pulled away from the 6M metros.
I don't think the general public would pay attention to that, but that should be common knowledge to us on City Data who break down stats for weeks after they are released.
There's nothing showing that DFW and Houston has slowed since the 2023 stats came out and nothing showing the other 6M Metros have caught up pace. I would bet good money that they are still growing by 150k (+20k for DFW, -20k for Houston).
Perceptions are slow but I think 17 years is enough time for perceptions to catch up.
I think most people have referred to Houston as the 4th largest city for awhile. Not sure ever references DCs size.
Yeah, it's mentioned better in the post above. But Dallas-Fort Worth-metroplex-whatever MSA is around 30% more populous than DC/Atlanta/Philly/Miami. Houston is around 20% larger. Both are growing much faster as well.
Oh so it's just referring to population (As the thread is about anyway). I see. In that case, that's very true.
I think most people have referred to Houston as the 4th largest city for awhile. Not sure ever references DCs size.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KinBueno
True.
I don't think most people ever think of DC's population size.
It's worldwide importance dwarfs it's size ranking
That's a solid point in that DC has prominence outside of its population size, so it's not often mentioned as a larger city. CSAs are already a wonk-y thing so a very small proportion of the population would know of or care that by CSA it officially became the third most populous CSA in the 2020 census and hit the ten million mark.
I think a decade and a half from now and with the infrastructure projects that are underway now, there's a good chance that DC-Baltimore ends up operating as a larger megacity rather than just having it be by CSA designation and will possibly be at least as intertwined as Dallas and Fort Worth are today and certainly more so than when the Metroplex term was coined in the 1970s, but this doesn't mean it will be commonly considered the third largest being overshadowed by DC's greater prominence in things aside from being the primary anchor of a large population center and having a historically entrenched separate identity from the Baltimore area. City population is probably the most commonly layman's touted metric and if Houston passes Chicago in that respect for a while before the 2040 census but does not pass it in the census designations of urban area, MSA, and CSA, and even if DFW and the Bay Area end up being larger in these as well, the city population will still be more memorable for most and that will give Houston a leg up in being considered #3.
I think some potential curve balls over the next decade and a half are:
- Chicago - Cook County consolidation or significant consolidation of some adjacent municipalities into Chicago (unlikely, but not completely unthinkable) while the others do not
- Return to significant growth for Chicago given it has the infrastructure of a much more densely populated city and has a massive amount of brownfield lands to re-develop
- the San Francisco Bay Area does more regional consolidation in some ways and acts as and becomes more commonly considered as a single area
- DFW Metroplex significantly outpaces Houston area's growth and the size difference is large enough that it in some sense overrides Houston city proper's larger population
- DC-Baltimore gets a collective sobriquet of some kind for a term covering the general area and it becomes actually popular in the
- None of the others grow so large and/or are so commonly recognized as larger such that the inertia of popular perception doesn't catch up by 2040
Not a part of this conversation, but I think interesting in terms of North America and the general Anglosphere is the continuing rapid growth of Toronto which I think is also roughly in this tier at this point.
For people familiar with the topic, does anyone know when the census first combined Dallas and Fort Worth? I know that within the MSA, the two are still separate Metropolitan Divisions, but was there a point when the census had designated them as two separate MSAs or MSA equivalents at the time?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 06-11-2024 at 10:43 AM..
For people familiar with the topic, does anyone know when the census first combined Dallas and Fort Worth? I know that within the MSA, the two are still separate Metropolitan Divisions, but was there a point when the census had designated them as two separate MSAs or MSA equivalents at the time?
The 2000 Census combined:
New York+ Newark+Long Island
Los Angeles+ Orange County
Dallas+Ft Worth
Miami+ Ft Lauderdale
San Francisco+Oakland
and so forth...
Prior to being combined, they were PMSAs that were parts of CMSAs.
The creation of Micropolitan Areas in 2000 meant they had to remove the M from CMSA because there were now 2 Ms(Metro and Micro) and CSA was a catch call designation since many CSAs have both Metro and Micros Areas.
...PMSAs were perfect imo, now they are called Metro Divisions, but I digress.
The 2000 Census combined:
New York+ Newark+Long Island
Los Angeles+ Orange County
Dallas+Ft Worth
Miami+ Ft Lauderdale
San Francisco+Oakland
and so forth...
Prior to being combined, they were PMSAs that were parts of CMSAs.
The creation of Micropolitan Areas in 2000 meant they had to remove the M from CMSA because there were now 2 Ms(Metro and Micro) and CSA was a catch call designation since many CSAs have both Metro and Micros Areas.
...PMSAs were perfect imo, now they are called Metro Divisions, but I digress.
Thanks for that! It's more recent than I expected.
I feel like we seldom discuss metropolitan divisions on this board or perhaps metropolitan division equivalents if there are not metropolitan divisions within a MSA? Or is it that MSAs *must* be comprised of more than one metropolitan division?
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