Is East Garfield Park up and coming? (Chicago, Washington: to rent, crime)

[Humboldt1]

I feel sorry for anyone who invested in east garfield park or the United Center area in the last 5 years. Even those who bought back in 2003 will have any equity they have built since their purchase erased by early 2009. Unless of course you got a foreclosure or short sale deal.

The market in United and EGP is especially soft. I really don't consider the area livable west of california or even western for a couple, though there is some great housing stock. The area is so down that I have begun looking at 3flats near United that were 600M two years ago and will be less than 400M in 6 months.

Again, my prayers go out to those who bought in EGP and United areas in the past few years. I am not much better in Humboldt but I bought to cashflow not to sell. So long as I hold it for another 5 years I will be fine and even make a little. For those in EGP and United it will take you 10 years to recoup your losses and make enough gains to cover sales commissions.

Just my opinion of course but I do know these markets.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

I feel sorry for anyone who invested in east garfield park or the United Center area in the last 5 years.

For those in EGP and United it will take you 10 years to recoup your losses and make enough gains to cover sales commissions.

Just my opinion of course but I do know these markets.

Well, with all due respect, I don't know anyone who knows the real estate market well enough to concretely say what's going to happen 10 years from now. That said, yes, there was entirely too much speculation during the first half of this decade. Everyone was looking for the next "hot thing." If that fever caught hold of some enough to cause them to move into the ghetto, well, can't say I feel too sorry for them. You should always buy personal residential property with the assumption that you may have to stay there 10 years. They got slammed and will hopefully learn from it. That's all you can say.

[Love East Garfield Park]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

I feel sorry for anyone who invested in east garfield park or the United Center area in the last 5 years. Even those who bought back in 2003 will have any equity they have built since their purchase erased by early 2009. Unless of course you got a foreclosure or short sale deal.

The market in United and EGP is especially soft. I really don't consider the area livable west of california or even western for a couple, though there is some great housing stock. The area is so down that I have begun looking at 3flats near United that were 600M two years ago and will be less than 400M in 6 months.

Again, my prayers go out to those who bought in EGP and United areas in the past few years. I am not much better in Humboldt but I bought to cashflow not to sell. So long as I hold it for another 5 years I will be fine and even make a little. For those in EGP and United it will take you 10 years to recoup your losses and make enough gains to cover sales commissions.

Just my opinion of course but I do know these markets.

How could you possibly know how long it will take an area to recover? Answer: You don't. I live in EGP and love it. I stated before the area has not been quick to gentrify, but so what. I have not had one slightly bad thing happen to me in 3 years. Please stop speaking as if you are an authority on EGP. Clearly you are not.

You seem to have very strong opionions about certain neighborhoods, I can only wonder why.

[Humboldt1]

I asked this question on the other thread:

You bought in 2005 for how much?

How much would you get now if you sold?

I suspect buying in 2005 you will need to stick around until 2010 to break even.

I know alot about East Garfield Park as I have looked to buy numerous apartment buildings in that area. On the outside the cashflows look good but then you have mostly Section 8 tenants who are nightmares to kick out along with streets that have gang and drug problems (we have this in Humboldt Park too).

I only live 1 mile from East Garfield Park. You have a great conservatory. I cannot take that from you. The Madison Street redevelopment plan sounds great but Madison street is a barren wasteland west of of western, with many lots undeveloped since the riots of 1968. I know the area very well.

One of my cop buddies lives in a 3 flat he owns in the 2500 block of Monroe. Even he has considered moving as the area doesn't appear to be improving all that quickly. That area is technically West Haven as East Garfield Park starts at the viaduct just west of there.

Are you able to walk around in your neighborhood at 3AM in the middle of a nice summer evening? I am due to my close proximity to North Avenue and a block whose residents don't put up with drug dealers. I doubt this is the case for you. When I show my out of town friends the Conservatory I insist upon driving them there as I will not risk them getting lost in East Garfield Park even during the day. It just isn't safe and this is coming from a guy who lives in Humboldt Park (granted north of grand avenue and division and east of pulaski).

[Irishtom29]

Originally Posted by Savoir Faire

You have to have a high threshold for "ghetto behavior" ie, people hanging out on their front porch, littering, unsupervised children roaming, loud music, loud talking, etc.. If you can't tolerate this than EGP is not for you, but than again most of the city probably isn't either.

.

Sitting on your stoop is ghetto behavior? 50 years ago the Irish sat on their porches in Garfield Park. You know, the old timers that still say "Madison and Crawford".

[Humboldt1]

Okay,

Most people who post on here are suburbanites and yuppies with central A/C. Back in the day people used to hang out on their front porches to avoid the summer heat. Now, with central A/C many homes no longer have front porches. A/C along with tv has destroyed a lot of the community still found in older neighborhoods where the residents do not have A/C.

Most people hanging out on porches live in the building and are just residents trying to get out of the heat and talk with their neighbors. The ones hanging out on street corners for hours at a time concern me.

When I see this I just call the cops and have them come over and harass whoever is foolish enough to try to hang out on the corners near my block. Other residents and I have gotten it to the point where the gangs have simply chosen to go a few over to avoid the police. By the way, when you call the cops in a neighborhood like Humboldt Park it takes them 30-60 mins to show up.

[Avengerfire]

Here is a nice jem of a story from 638 N. Spaulding Ave in East Garfield Park near the border with the Humboldt Park neighborhood.

Cops: 3 babies found in filthy West Side apartment - Chicago Breaking News (http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/01/3-babies-found-in-filthy-west-side.html - broken link)

Three Babies Found Living in Squalor | NBC Chicago

Police find three babies living in squalor, adults arrested :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Chicago Crime (http://www.suntimes.com/news/24-7/1361518,w-babies-living-squalor-010409.article - broken link)

[Humboldt1]

It will take those who bought in EGP in 2005 until at least 2012 to get even. It will be 2011 or 2012 before I break even if I were to sell, which I am not. 2009 will be brutal for areas like EGP, Humboldt Park, and even better parts like Logan Square and West Town. Look for prices to continue to decline 10-20 percent into early to mid 2010. Notice, it is even worse than I originally posted back in Feb 08.

[Avengerfire]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

...The market in United and EGP is especially soft. I really don't consider the area livable west of california or even western for a couple, though there is some great housing stock. The area is so down that I have begun looking at 3flats near United that were 600M two years ago and will be less than 400M in 6 months...

So are they down to 400k now? I cant believe any of them got over 275k to tell you the truth. I certainly would not pay more than 275k for any 3 flat in E. Garfield Park.

[Humboldt1]

You can now get brick 3-flats (I don't like siding) for less than $200K in EGP. You can get brick 3-flats around United Center (Washington and Damen area) for less than $300K now. I would stick to West Town and not look at Westhaven (so stay north of grand, 500N, the rail tracks) if I had the option, which I do.

I clearly bought into this in 7/06 when I bought a brick 3-flat for $360K. It appraised out for $380K in 2/08, but I doubt I could get much more than $300K in this market. By 2012, I hope it will be worth $400K or more. Time will tell. Hopefully, it won't be until 2015 before I see an increase in value.