Which suburbs will go down in value most in the next 10 years?

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by chet everett

There is simply no evidence that the factors that have moved a handful of non-selective admissions CPS schools from "awful" to acceptable are spreading. The pockets of affluence that gave rise to schools like Blaine & Nettlehorst are not spreading. The trend in new construction and renovations in booming areas closer to Blue Line is not "family oriented" housing but the sorts of rentals that are attractive to the post college crowd. The crackdown CPS insisted was not due to politics has dispirited many other principals and teachers that wanted change.The depressing reality for even folks in posh parts of Lincoln Park with runaway property taxes and deteriorating schools is that CPS is unresponsive to the needs of families.

Institutional bureaucracies are always going to have their issues. A major one with school systems that have a high volume of low income students, in my experience, is that they teach to the "lowest common denominator," meaning parents with intelligent children who are ready to learn quickly become frustrated. They start pointing fingers in every direction (except it seems at the root of the issue) and then pull their kids out.

Again, I'm not saying that Chicago is going to change overnight. I'm just saying that with a large enough group of parents, the schools would change quickly. We are not at that stage yet.

[RJA29]

Originally Posted by BRU67

Institutional bureaucracies are always going to have their issues. A major one with school systems that have a high volume of low income students, in my experience, is that they teach to the "lowest common denominator," meaning parents with intelligent children who are ready to learn quickly become frustrated. They start pointing fingers in every direction (except it seems at the root of the issue) and then pull their kids out.

Again, I'm not saying that Chicago is going to change overnight. I'm just saying that with a large enough group of parents, the schools would change quickly. We are not at that stage yet.

Chet, BRU67, you're both right on this account. The middle ground is key:

"with a large enough group of parents"

should be

"with a large enough group of AFFLUENT parents" -- who put their children into public schools.

This means that parents will stay in the city. Some will, certainly, and they will likely be the more affluent ones. But people like me (and a vast number of other millenials who are just having children) that can easily afford a decent, 1/2 MM house in the burbs within walking distance of a Metra and good schools, won't buy an overpriced condo in a crap-shot school district in Chicago proper. If I could afford private schools and a 2MM home, sure, and maybe that would help the public schools get better too, but they just aren't there, even if some are coming along.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by RJA29

"with a large enough group of AFFLUENT parents" -- who put their children into public schools.

White guilt will prevent most from admitting this, even as their moving truck pulls up in a lily white Naperville subdivision. Much more PC to blame school administrators. But yeah, that's really the issue. If you took the kids at New Trier and air dropped them into Fenger or Dunbar, and vice versa, the test scores would flip flop overnight.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by BRU67

White guilt will prevent most from admitting this, even as their moving truck pulls up in a lily white Naperville subdivision. Much more PC to blame school administrators. But yeah, that's really the issue. If you took the kids at New Trier and air dropped them into Fenger or Dunbar, and vice versa, the test scores would flip flop overnight.

I have been a teacher in CPS, at a much nicer suburban public high school as well as private school. I have friends that still work in each setting and believe me the INSTITUTIONAL differences in how each kind of school is run are VERY different. Most decent suburban schools hire good teachers and give them LOTS of latitude about EVERY ASPECT of how they teach, that really pays off HUGE in a very success oriented school like New Trier or Hinsdale Central where the BEST teachers are essentially giving kids a full one college experience but even a few notches down the teachers can interact with students in a wide range of ways.

CPS DOES NOT ALLOW THAT except in the RARE situation where they have a school like Northside or Payton that is run pretty much like A PRIVATE SCHOOL.

What happens in a private school is the Headmaster / Principal is basically truly setting the town for EVERYTHING. That means that is a teacher gets on the wrong side of the principal THEY ARE GONE because there is no contract / union. Very good for teachers that understand and mostly good for students when the headmaster wants every kid to get into top notch college and demands that every aspect of the school is focused on that...

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Most decent suburban schools hire good teachers and give them LOTS of latitude about EVERY ASPECT of how they teach, that really pays off HUGE in a very success oriented school like New Trier or Hinsdale Central where the BEST teachers are essentially giving kids a full one college experience but even a few notches down the teachers can interact with students in a wide range of ways.

CPS DOES NOT ALLOW THAT except in the RARE situation where they have a school like Northside or Payton that is run pretty much like A PRIVATE SCHOOL.

I respect your experience and I have no doubt that there is some severe institutional dysfunction going on in CPS. That said, one reason they might not allow it because to do so would be to leave their challenged students (87% of those in CPS are low income) in the dust. When schools reach 70%+ low income, it becomes all hands on deck to address the unique and substantial needs of the lower scoring students.

I remember being part of a community group trying to get magnet/gifted programs implemented in a high low income school district. It was literally like beating your head against a cement wall. Their commitment to the low income students was moving, but parents of high achieving kids are not going to go for that, and many will leave the community. That of course leaves less and less money to hire those good teachers you talk about, since school funding in our great state is based on how high your property values are. And, of course, teachers are human and also get burned out in dealing with students whose parents are not pulling their weight (to put it gently) and leave for these decent suburban schools for that reason. It really is a stacked deck.

[Rhino4401]

Originally Posted by BRU67

I respect your experience and I have no doubt that there is some severe institutional dysfunction going on in CPS. That said, one reason they might not allow it because to do so would be to leave their challenged students (87% of those in CPS are low income) in the dust. When schools reach 70%+ low income, it becomes all hands on deck to address the unique and substantial needs of the lower scoring students.

I remember being part of a community group trying to get magnet/gifted programs implemented in a high low income school district. It was literally like beating your head against a cement wall. Their commitment to the low income students was moving, but parents of high achieving kids are not going to go for that, and many will leave the community. That of course leaves less and less money to hire those good teachers you talk about, since school funding in our great state is based on how high your property values are. And, of course, teachers are human and also get burned out in dealing with students whose parents are not pulling their weight (to put it gently) and leave for these decent suburban schools for that reason. It really is a stacked deck.

How did things turn out for you? It sounds like you & Chet agree.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Rhino4401

How did things turn out for you? It sounds like you & Chet agree.

Well, there is no Magnet School or expanded gifted program in that school district and I suspect there never will be. Anyway, yeah, Chet and I agree on a lot of things and I suspect we agree here. We're just phrasing it differently.

[Northwest Indiana]

Originally Posted by Careless

Skokie is about to flip to majority-minority. I hope it survives the transition, but the history of such suburbs is not good

This is Chicago we are talking about...the only demographic flip that folks here are mainly concerned about are from White to Black...Skokie's population would become mostly Asian if anything which does not scare people away. Look at how fast demographic changes occurred in the south suburbs that went from White to Black and then look at some other suburbs in the area that maybe saw growth in mostly Hispanic or Asian populations. The latter changes occurred much slower. The south suburbs was seemingly overnight. Skokie has a lot going for it and the "transition" will be survived. The schools are still decent, the area is safe, and there is a great commercial base which includes high-end offerings. As stated already, the majority of the minorities in Skokie are immigrants of varying cultures and nationalities and largely upwardly mobile. While many of the minorities in the south suburbs were upwardly mobile as well, almost just as many were not really upwardly mobile but were barely making it enough to move out of the city and into them most affordable places in the suburbs. Many of those folks whom had stable jobs dedicate a large portion of their pay to housing and when the collapse occurred in 2008, the south suburbs were the hardest hit by far.

[Northwest Indiana]

My reasons for those three is primarily because school quality has declined and the taxes are outrageous. The homes in these three towns are affordable relative to other comparable suburbs but the taxes (especially in Flossmoor) are insane and makes many of these seemingly affordable homes much less affordable. Flossmoor and Olympia Fields do have many unique styles of homes that you may really only be able to find in some north shore suburbs, but the wealth is not as broad and with surrounding suburbs not being desirable, it may prove to make an investment in these towns more challenging. Having said all this, if I were having to raise a family in the south suburbs, these are the three towns that I would consider due to H-F being the best south suburban district. I would probably consider Lansing too due to familiarity and while the schools aren't the greatest, the area is still decently safe in most parts.

For the record, when I say "south suburbs", that is referring to everything east of I-57. West of I-57 I refer to as southwest suburbs but I have heard folks call some of those areas "south suburbs" at least when it is in reference to something good!