How's the housing market over here now? (Bend: foreclose, loan)

[delta07]

Originally Posted by Snownut

I don't think the economy will grow fast enough to support this continued fast appreciation? A weak world and national economic recovery and rising interest rates will hopefully prevent another bubble in Bend.

Of course we got caught up in this price rise as we are about to close on out first Bend property. (in a couple weeks) and we are buying sooner than I would have liked because of this past years quick rise. I wanted to wait until next summer but felt the need to move quickly before being priced out of our budget.

So I guess I am being part of the problem? Strange how these cycles go ? I am about to jump on the Bend roulette wheel, like everyone who does I think it will work out for us?

At least we won't have to worry about a place to live if we are able to find jobs in Bend.

I hope it does work out for you Snownut. The big if is finding the jobs in Bend. Hopefully, with the addition of a 4 year university, Bend will become more than just a tourist town. But, that may take some time. It's still going to be a small campus. I think I probably would have waited to purchase the house until the winter, when prices, hopefully will drop. But, you can count on that and if you found the property you wanted, then it may have been a wise decision. It sounds like you will use it as a rental property if need be.

Originally Posted by whirnot

This is the case nationwide, and I would assume because Bends hit was larger than most, the rise is as well.
This can hurt the overall recovery as Interest rates are up as well. It is going to put a damper on new construction which is necessary for recovery. I am hoping it levels out soon to grow stronger legs.

But John Q Public never learns.....

I agree. When I talk with my mom about this (who just started in Real Estate, btw), she says it's looking more and more like we will have a big housing market crash that takes a very long time, 10-15 years to recover. Right now we are kinda in the rebound relationship bubble.

Originally Posted by whirnot

That holds true to my comment. Top 100 bubbles, top 100 crashes, then we start the cycle again.

I grew up in one of the most expensive, highest appreciation towns in the USA. It is not a good thing. Even if the crashes do not occur, the area just changes and not for better.

As they say, the Billionaires drive the Millionaires out.

Real, hardworking folks don't have a chance.

This is was killed Bend before. I worry this will be the case again.

Originally Posted by Coniferian

I'm a retiree trying to buy a modest home in the Bend/Redmond area to live in, but haven't been able to sell my house, despite being near the Denver market which also has a high price growth rate. We're seeing plenty of inventory in our price range up there and now at the end of the season people are dropping their listing prices, as are we. It's still a good market for buyers - if you don't have to find a job too.

It is, but the key element, like you said, is a job. I have a friend in Denver who is looking for homes in the mountains, but they still have to get to Denver to work, so they are having a difficult time finding one to meet their needs. Bend, in that regard, has the properties if you can compete with the investors, but you will more than likely need to bring your job with you.

[PNW-type-gal]

Looking at the bottom of the appraiser's report I got for a property in Medford, she shows the majority of the movement in property is in the sub $200k range and the inventory in that bracket has dropped very, very low. Like Bend (and Portland), the rental vacancy rate in Medford is very low and a lot of the properties (anecdotally, from my RE) are going to investors - usually a cash or nearly all-cash buyer - as rentals, who are edging out the "credit damaged" who had to sell in the housing bust and are looking to get back to ownership but in a smaller, less expensive place. (Why? Because IF you can get the mortgage, the payments are lower than the rent in a nice area.)

I suspect the same is true in Bend, with a bit more high-end thrown in from upscale retirees and second homes.

[Coniferian]

Not sure what price range your friend is looking for delta07, but our 3/2 home (now at $220K) is about 20 minutes from C470. I commuted to Denver from here for over 30 years. There's a shortcut that lets you skip US285. MLS#1224864 if they're interested.

[BendLocal]

Nearly half of all homes are purchased in cash - MarketWatch

All-cash purchases accounted for 40% of all sales of residential property in July 2013, up from 35% during the previous month and 31% in July 2012, according to data from real-estate data firm RealtyTrac released Thursday. That’s the second highest rate since the survey began in January 2011 – second only to 53% in March 2012.

Another report by Goldman Sachs last week was even more strongly in the cash-is-king camp, estimating that cash sales now accounted for 57% of all residential home sales versus 19% in 2005. Walt Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, says that the association’s estimates of the share of the market made up by all-cash buyers are lower than the others, at 31% in July, but that they’re still at an all-time high.

[Snownut]

Originally Posted by BendLocal

Nearly half of all homes are purchased in cash - MarketWatch

Yes cash is king!

We are about to close on our first investment / move ready property in Bend and we are not cash buyers.

The backup offer that came in 24 hours after ours was a cash offer. Because of that the seller's agent was constantly checking to make sure all our paper work was moving along. Cash is certainly King in this market, and the sellers would have already closed with the cash buyer. Only because of great credit and a solid down payment were we able to purchase this property.

Tight lending standards and cash buyers make it harder for first time or starter home buyers. That must be frustrating for some local buyers in Bend?

That fact and the tight lending standards make me skeptical Bend's market is going to get too crazy or approach ridiculous peak prices around in 2007?

My non scientific observation of properties and sales in Bend lately: Prices aren't rising like they were in the late winter to early summer time frame. I have been getting daily Zillow updates the past few weeks with properties cutting there prices and rarely see price increases.

I think it is still a good time to buy if you want to and are able.

[PNW-type-gal]

According the the appraiser's report I was reading, we've past the "high" season for sales (the back-to-school market where families want to be in the new house before the kids start school). Plus there was a buying rush as the last of the well-qualified but reluctant realized that mortgage rates were going up. I think, too, the MERS rulings by the Oregon court will mean that the banks may start kicking foreclosure onto the market as well, so there may be a pick up in property availability in the fall and winter. The banks have been pretty cautious about releasing foreclosures for a ton of reasons (not wanting to drop market prices, not wanting to admit that their book includes houses which will sell for way below book value, not wanting to risk the title mess that MERS caused).

In MERS ruling, Oregon Supreme Court clears way for out-of-court foreclosures to proceed | OregonLive.com

[BendLocal]

Unfortunately I think prices may drop again as the foreclosed properties hit the market.

[skypros]

On 8/28/13 @ 6:00 pm I listed my house for $230,000 within 21 HOURS I had 3 showings and THREE offers all were at asking price or above.
So I don't think there is really any slow down yet..... what I think is happening is people are listing there home way above market value.
I accepted the asking price offer ($230k) which was all cash and a 3 week escrow.

Last winter I purchased a 3 bed 2 bath 1,268 sq ft on 1 acre fixer in Sisters for $132k and just got done remodeling the inside and moved in 2 weeks ago.... now on to the outside... new roof, paint and some landscape.

[BendLocal]

The sub $300K range is hot - no question about that.

But the slowdown is hitting some areas already. Can Bend be far behind?

Housing Bubble Deflated By Rising Rates

[kapetrich]

I love how when a word/phrase enters common vernacular like 'Housing Bubble' then that phrase is then continuously used to describe things that hardly meet the original criteria. Saying we're in a housing bubble is a nice headline, but lets be frank, interest rates rising and banks letting go of their overdue foreclosures will look nothing like the housing bubble last experienced. Will there be a slow down, naturally. That's how things work especially when these two variables are added, but coooooommmmeeeee.onnnnnn.now.

Fear sells.

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I completely agree with what whirnot wrote last week:

Originally Posted by whirnot

This is the case nationwide, and I would assume because Bends hit was larger than most, the rise is as well.
This can hurt the overall recovery as Interest rates are up as well. It is going to put a damper on new construction which is necessary for recovery. I am hoping it levels out soon to grow stronger legs.

But John Q Public never learns.....

So sensible, none sensational and rational!