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I, for one, would be more than happy to give up a little in environmental progress (greenhouse gases) in order to stop sending my money to a part of the world that tries to blow us up. Many people feel this way, and this will also contribute to the growth of the electric vehicle.
And let's not forget that experts are basing many of their position papers on improvements in current technology. Who knows what research will yield in the coming decades?
Alot of what you say has merit except for some smaller points. Now days most people in metro areas commute more than sixty miles to get to work,
The statistics I saw showed the average commuter drives 17 miles to work a day. A car with a range of 40 miles of battery only power would serve something like 80% of the population. No links I can't find them, just what I remember. Besides being online I remember it also being talked about on "Who Killed the Electric Car" (the movie).
Regardless, I don't believe an all electric car is the answer. I don't want to buy a car that only goes 40, 60, even 100 miles on a single charge. I need it to have flexibility. A plug-in hybrid would be nice, or maybe a better solution is a algae or cellulose based fuel powering diesels. That would keep the cost down significantly because it's based upon our current infrastructure, and would be much cheaper to produce and purchase.
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Another item that are not addressed by the "Pro Electric car crowd" is that peak hours if I recall correctly is from about six AM to about ten PM when the lights start going out for the night.
Well I was more talking about peak usage not peak hours as billed by the electric companies. You're saying the electricity used at 6 AM and 10 PM is the same that is used at 12 PM? I can't agree with that, without a graph showing electric usage based on time.
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As far as the cost to operate, I would assume that the charge rate for the car batteries is going to be at about a smaller 2 to 3 KW load (or more) for an average of 8 hours charge time. That will seem to be a bit more than a $1.00 per charge,
On who killed the electric car they estimated that operating an electric car would be akin to $0.60/gallon gasoline.
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Although it may be a bit cheaper than an SUV up front, what you forgot is that these batteries are also only good for a few years and cost about $5,000.00+ to dispose/replace as part of the operational costs per hour and would have to be recharged twice daily for most people that wanted to use them... provided they can find a place to plug in for the workday.
Not so sure about that, I believe GM's design life frame for their Volt batteries is around 10 years. Already touched on the plugging in issue at work "for most people" as you put it. The fact remains that "for most people" a plug in hybrid car that gets 40 miles on its battery pack will be able to take the majority of the population to and from work in a single charge.
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Here in Alaska, I doubt we could ever use them at all except for a few months in the summer in the bigger cities. The distances to travel between work and home for most people would far out range most of the electric cars to date. Then again, there is the extremes in cold and such to contend with too.
Anyway, would like to hear your thoughts.
Great for the 700,000 people that live in Alaska (0.0023% of the American population). Again for the majority of the population of around 300,000,000, we will be able to use them in battery only modes for our daily commutes, which is where the majority of driving takes place.
I don't have any use for a furnace, fire wood, or any other heating elements besides a heat pump where I live. Does that mean that you in Alaska don't either? No!
The 100 mile limit would kill it for me. Occasionally I do have to go someplace that is 51 miles or more from home. Wouldn't want to have to walk home after the battery died....
OK lets look at the numbers for real here. Using the figure that was tossed out about 17 miles to work for 80% of us (even though there was no supporting link, let's use it for arguments sake.)
that is 34 miles a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year given the US average of 2 weeks vacation per year. That works out to 8500 miles a year. Lets just give the benefit of the doubt and say the batteries will last 10 years before replacement. That's 85000 miles over the life span of the batteries. About average price for replacement of those batteries that was used and from what I could find is about $5000. So $5000/85000= $0.05882 per mile. NOT counting the cost of recharging those batteries over their lifetime, which if you believe that very low estimate of $1 a day, will add an additional $2500 to the cost of operation. Which would make the total cost per mile $0.08823.
Now just using cost for fuel to drive that same distance (85000 miles) at $2 a gallon would put the cost per mile at $0.067 if you drive a car that gets 30 MPG. If you drive a something that gets 50 MPG like the old Geo Metros do, you can cut that cost to an even $0.04 per mile.
Even at 24 MPG like my Ford Freestyle gets during the winter with all-wheel drive and seating 6 people, it is lower cost per mile to run than the electric car. Frankly I doubt you can recharge the electric car batteries for around 1Kw of energy per hour, in an 8 hour period; Which would give you that $1 a charge figure used.
The problem with all these claims is they never address real world problems such as driving at night (headlights on), bad weather (wipers) and heat and windshield defrosting needs,and...as if all those additional electrical loads aren't enough, the reduced battery capacity (-20%) during very cold temperatures (previously mentioned). Of course in very hot areas Fl. Ar. etc there's the not insignificant reduction in battery life to factor in also.
In light of the just mentioned why do you think all these proto type tests are done in areas with consistant mild weather huh ??
Here's a real world example of what can easily happen. Your elec car has a 100 mile range and a 10 hr recharge time. Grandma lives 40 miles away. So it should be no problem to load you,wife,and child and go visit grandma for Xmas right ??
You got 20 miles extra to the good.. Well you load up and get there..Alls well,, moms happy to see the little ones, diner was great etc etc... Of course it's December so it's dark by 5 PM and it started snowing 2 hours ago.
You couldn't recharge while there cuz she isn't set up with a 220V outlet at the driveway. SO you have to drive home in the dark,lights on,wipers on, heat/defrosting on....guess what .....you ain't going to make it. You are going to coast to a stop somewhere along the road at night.!!
Great for the 700,000 people that live in Alaska (0.0023% of the American population). Again for the majority of the population of around 300,000,000, we will be able to use them in battery only modes for our daily commutes, which is where the majority of driving takes place.
Well hate to pop your bubble on that one, but most of the Northern States get well below zero as well for at least a few months out of the year, some with lots of snow. They will required defrosters that use power, heat for the passengers as well as headlights. That draws the load way down and would effect the range also.
As far as the average commute, most of the bigger cities that need the benefits of what an electric car could provide, the people do commute over the 50 mile one way range just because they can't afford the costs of city housing.
In the event that is being a good daylight ride, no snow, warm and no stop and go traffic with no hills or stoplights to contend with. I don't see where it will be a very often event unless you live in Southern Calif.
The stopping and starting is what is going to be what drags the battery down quickly and I would assume that 100 mile range will drop to about 70 in heavy city traffic not considering the other factors. The Amp load from the batteries to the motor for starting to get the car moving is what really draws them down. Then the issue of hills will also draw a bunch of the battery reserve too.
Oh, and the power usage at midnight isn't the same at 6 am to 10 pm, but it is still a strong draw in early evening because all the "Workers" are home, cooking dinner, watching TV with the lights on. The power grid shifts from the city to the outskirts of the city where most people live. But the draw at the power plant is still pretty good until about ten PM when everyone starts turning stuff off and heading to bed.
I amazes me that they show these cars always in the flat desert where it is a perfect world, but very few of us live there. I would assume that the tests are all based on that enviorment, not driving home in the dark hilly backroads.
The 100 mile limit would kill it for me. Occasionally I do have to go someplace that is 51 miles or more from home. Wouldn't want to have to walk home after the battery died....
You have to remember, the cars are basically set up and marketed only for commuting, most families still need a second car to go on all the runs mom would make to the school, stores and other runs that add up too. Even if you had a short commute and couldn't afford a second car, mom would have to drive you to work to have the car and that 100 mile range just went out the window.
Some of you may have seen the Top Gear review of the Honda FCX Clarity. The reviewer, James May, posited that the FCX is the answer, not the electric car.
Some of you may have seen the Top Gear review of the Honda FCX Clarity. The reviewer, James May, posited that the FCX is the answer, not the electric car.
Is he right? Does it achieve the right balance of flexibility and clean?
There are serious challenges to production, storage, and transportation of hydrogen... it comes from natural gas and is not all that cheap. If you ignore that fact that you can only buy fuel 25 places in the country, the FCX is fine. Don't make any bets on it for the next fifty years.
Now just using cost for fuel to drive that same distance (85000 miles) at $2 a gallon would put the cost per mile at $0.067 if you drive a car that gets 30 MPG. If you drive a something that gets 50 MPG like the old Geo Metros do, you can cut that cost to an even $0.04 per mile.
With gas at $2/gallon it doesn't make financial sense to do it. When gas was $4/gallon it started to.
I doubt gas will stay $2/gallon for very long, just IMO.
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