The news was trumpeting the administrative dictate that automobile and light truck gas mileage will be 35.5 MPG by 2016, and will be like taking 177 million cars off the road.
At first glance, it is fluff. At second glance, it is foolish. At third glance, it is madness.
List of countries by vehicles per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The U.S.A. has 765 cars per thousand people.
Population is approximately 306 million, which computes to 234 million automobiles choking our cities and highways.
Think about it - - -
35.5 Miles per gallon is a bureaucratic pigeon hole concept. Miles per gallon per WHAT? What passenger or cargo load? It is foolish to be fuelish.**
Single occupant vehicles are still wasting time and fuel commuting to and from work, etc. What madness is it to wrap a 1500 to 2500 lb. vehicle around you, and expend resources to move it all, from point A to point B.
Reducing fuel consumption does not remove vehicles from the roads, nor does it slow down the destruction of pavement, bridges, and infrastructure.
The whole transportation system is based on flawed reasoning to begin with. Regarding land based transportation, the automobile / truck / bus mode is incredibly wasteful and dependent upon massive subsidy for road building and maintenance, logistical support (fuel depots, parking, safety clearances), and resource consumption.
In terms of energy efficiency, steel wheel on steel rail is only surpassed by magnetic levitation - which is far more expensive and restrictive in application. In contrast, the rubber tire on asphalt pavement is inefficient, no matter what MPG target is attempted.
In terms of passengers or cargo per mile, electric rail is 15 to 30 times more fuel efficient. However, the political inertia of the subsidized automobile has locked the U.S.A. into a suicide pact.
As the cost of petroleum rises and supply diminishes, due to ever growing worldwide demand - especially as China and India consumers come on line - any transportation system dependent upon it will be choked to death. Only the richest Americans or the most subsidized Americans will be enjoying those high MPG vehicles in 2016.
A better way to get a grasp of the overall picture is to examine America in the 1890 - 1910 period before cheap and plentiful petroleum was available. At that time, land transportation was dominated by rail, as in electric streetcars, subways, interurbans, cable cars, funiculars, and heavy rail (steam). There was a good reason for it - laws of Physics.
When America was Queen of Oil, it made economic sense to transition to diesel and gasoline powered vehicles. Since 1970s, and America's falling oil output, it no longer makes sense. We import 70% of our current consumption of petroleum. No matter how fuel efficient the vehicles become, the fact that we're exporting billions and billions (and trillions) of dollar bills for an irreplaceable fuel should be a kick in the head.
Even if all automobiles and trucks were electric (or electric hybrid), the petroleum will still be needed for their manufacture, rubber tires, plastics, lubrication, and even the asphalt pavement. And they're still inefficient modes of mass transportation, requiring far more surface area for superhighways, to deal with growing populations.
Rails are in another league entirely. Steel wheel on steel rail consumes far less resources and fuel. A single rail has the equivalent passenger carrying capacity of nine lanes of superhighway. New York City's 4 track subway / rail mass transit is the equivalent of a 36 lane superhighway under Manhattan.
From Wiki:
MTA New York City Transit. It is one of the most extensive public transportation systems in the world, with 468 reported passenger stations, (or 422 if stations connected by transfers are counted as one), 229 miles (369 km) of routes, translating into 656 miles (1056 km) of revenue track, and a total of 842 miles (1355 km) including non- revenue trackage. The subway is also notable for being among the few rapid transit systems in the world to run 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Though it is known as "the subway", implying underground operations, about 40% of the system runs on above-ground tracks. The New York City subway has over
6,400 cars.
Daily ridership:
6,432,700.
NYC population: 8,274,527.
NY urban population: 18,498,000
Note the magnitude of efficiency - each train car moves an average of 1000 people per day. No bus nor car can match that. No highway system could endure that volume of traffic, in such a limited area.
In the scenario where the USA had to find an alternative to 70% of its 234 million automobiles, we can conservatively substitute 234 thousand passenger train cars, that may last a century or more, to carry the equivalent passenger load.
**Some fuel consumption comparisons:
strickland.ca - transportation energy efficiency (fuel consumption) (http://strickland.ca/efficiency.html - broken link)
Rail : 2000 passenger miles / gallon
Diesel Bus: 280 passenger miles / gallon
Ford Explorer : 100 passenger miles / gallon (*fully loaded with passengers)
Rail has a 20:1 advantage over an SUV. And an electric train has a 3:1 advantage over a diesel train.
At 35.5 MPG, in 2016, a single occupant vehicle will consume 56 times as much fuel per passenger mile as a rail car / train.
It's not surprising that the Auto industry joined ranks with the politicians in supporting high MPG (which translates to smaller, lighter, less safe vehicles). They see the inconvenient truth - that in less than a generation, automobiles will no longer be the dominant mode of land transportation in the U.S.A. But that hasn't stopped the back door thieves from setting up the taxpayer to take the fall. Because you and I know that anytime government tackles a problem, it makes it worse.
https://www.city-data.com/forum/6960665-post1.html