[john3232]

Originally Posted by EddieB.Good

Sorry to tell you this, but your instincts are spot on. This won't be 2016 again for 3 reasons.

1. In 2016 pollsters underestimated White uneducated support. They did not expect that group to turn out like they did. That surprise is off the board this year. Every poll is putting the White uneducated support where it was in 2016. Trump IS losing.

2. People didn't want Hillary. Whether that was Fix news 20 years of smears or not thinking she was warm enough or believing conspiracy theories about her, they picked the less distasteful person. Biden doesn't have that baggage and Trump has shown us just how distasteful he is bc now there's no question who the leader of two evils is.

3. Trump has done nothing to expand his base. There isn't a single voting bloc that's seen Trump in office and decided that he's what they want this time vs last time. All he's done is lose voters from his base. Farmers who were screwed over by the China tariffs, military folks who see how he's attacked dead soldiers, Conservatives who see how openly he plays to White Supremacists... The list goes on. And those people on the list are voting their conscience, which is not Trump.

...pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage.

That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.

And those issues haven’t been fixed.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...s-biden-324210