June 13-14 Storm update:
The storm should start Thursday morning give or take for everyone east of Ohio.
Then the peak in intensity will be Thursday night/Early Friday morning depending where you are..
It should be Cleared out by Friday night.
Weekend looks good. Friday/Saturday I expect wind.
Latest Euro shows the 5000' layer above some of us drops into the 30s!
This is for Friday 8am time frame. Storm is off NJ coast, check out the 850mb temps on the right. Low single digits Celsius because of it.
NWS Upton:
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING MCS ACTIVITY AND FEEDBACK ON SHORTWAVE STRENGTH. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...
IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...DUE TO PHASING OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD LEND TO WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION TOT HE HEAVY RAIN...EASTERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS THU INTO THU NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS THIS COULD LEAD TO DOWNING OF SOME TREES.