My COVID thoughts

12-18-2020

The Miracle of Extra Covid Vial on Chanukah

A variant of the miracle of Chanukah is the miracle of the Covid vaccine vials. It turns out that vials thought to contain five doses of vaccine actually have approximately seven (link), excerpt:
Maybe seven vials for five is not the same as eight nights of light from one cruz. But it's a start.

11-17-2020

https://www.city-data.com/forum/religion-spirituality/3218622-does-mezuzah-protect-against-covid-19-a.html#post59701651

According to the Chabad site (link) the Mezuzah that is practically ubiquitous these days at Jewish households (when I was growing up not so much) has the "power...to protect from harm and to prolong one’s life."11-5-2020

https://www.city-data.com/forum/non-...l#post59599156

I am 63. It is easy to find people to make small talk with, enjoy playing tennis with, or be friendly professional colleagues with. Now the hard part, real, close friendships. The OP in Advice on Upcoming Tense 40th High School Reunion and Starting to Think of Unfriending "Real Life" Close Friend deal with some of the issues.

The first OP refers secondarily to a close friend, David, whom I have known since Third Grade, fall 1965. We were friends in elementary and Junior High School, and lost touch with each other in high school and college. Tennis brought us back in contact during most of the 1980's, as did spending some time in the Hamptons, albeit in different houses. My wife, whom I met in 1990 and I were friends with both David and his first wife. They were both at our 1991 wedding. His first marriage ended in divorce. We were friendly with both David and his second wife, who died tragically at the age of 57 of cancer. He is a bit nervous about Covid, and also politically we differ. It will take the easing of the Covid panic and the passage of the election furor to really resume contact, though we spoke about two weeks ago.

The person about whom both OP's feature, Jim, is another story. We have resumed our relationship. However, as a result of Covid he has decamped to his and his wife's second home in the Hamptons. Getting together will be easier said than done as his wife suffer Lyme's Disease, and Covid is a concern. Jim does not think that friendships, including ours, will be a casualty of the pandemic. See Are we turning into animals, courtesy of Covid-19? for my earlier thoughts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbgusa

Many of these changes created by the Covid-19 pandemic are erasing our identity as human beings. We cannot send our children to school. We cannot send our preschool children to socializing nursery school. We cannot enjoy the benefits of the arts, including music and museums. The question is, what distinguishes us from primates from which we emerged?

This is not far-fetched. When our state governors have thoughtlessly closed down businesses with no plan of reopening, they erase much of what distinguishes a human being from the animals. *********Much of what has made human society distinct from the animal kingdom comes from the socializing and collective experience of enjoying music and visual art.

Jim thinks that man is a social animal. I agree, but fear, anxiety and panic will render many adults without friends in any real sense.


10-26-2020

Rain G-ds, Superstition, Helplessness and Covid; Conquest or Impact Mitigation?


In ancient times there were pantheons of G-d's, and fables, myths, and books to go with them. The most famous of these were the Greek myths, and full length books such as the Odyssey and the Iliad. Norse sagas earn honorable mention. The Bible is a hybrid, aching to stretch towards modern ethics (chiefly in Leviticus and Deuteronomy), but with a healthy dose of the supernatural mixed in. While I am a firm believer in my Jewish faith, it takes a healthy suspension of disbelief to take literally certain events. The stories of the giving of the Commandments at Mount Sinai, the parting of the Red Sea, the burning bush and the story of Noah's Ark are but a few of those.

Man, put simply, had a need to understand and attempt to control events before which he was helpless. This included disasters such as massive floods in a desert climate (story of Noah), massive storms at sea (Jonah, and The Odyssey), and lightening storms (the story of the giving of the Ten Commandments). This list of stories of ancient vintage is by no means exhaustive. Ancient man was at the mercy of the elements and knew it. In Medieval times, disasters such as the spread of smallpox and bubonic plague took front and center. There were efforts to blame those catastrophes on disfavored groups such as the Jews. This was strikingly similar to the post-Mao attribution of earthquakes to the "Gang of Four" which included Mao's despised wife.

Modern man believes he can control his environment and is traumatized when he cannot. My childhood in the early 1960's was interspersed with "duck and cover" civil defense drills. Apartment buildings and schools, and office buildings had "fallout shelter" signs. This was pure theater of course. If there were a full-scale nuclear bloodbath there would not have been years of stockpiled food and potable water. Yet it was an effort to make the fear and panic more bearable.



Similarly after the 9-11 attacks we willingly waited, and still wait in long security lines at airports and office buildings, as if that will make us safe from the sick minds that devise such evil attacks. We are generals fighting the last war. Psychology compels us to "do something" even if it is objectively futile.


History is repeating both Biblical and modern events with Covid. A huge plague sweeps the earth, apparently emanating from Chinese labs or wet markets. As if out of nowhere the news gets downright scary; people they know, or people those people know, start sickening and sometimes dying. Most, for reasons we do not know, do just fine. Yet they want to feel virtuous above having taken appropriate action. They gush with internal warm feelings when, for example, Governor Cuomo praises "tough" New Yorkers for having "beaten Covid."

Meanwhile, others prattle about "consequences" for China, or call it the "China Flu", Wuhan coronavirus or more colorfully "Kung Flu." Politicians willingly advocate "Safer at Home", "New York Pause" or other names for lockdowns. If you ask "for how long" they'll say "however long is needed." Meanwhile the politicians don't, of course, lock down. They are doing what they enjoy most. People comply because of the inbred need to "take action" or "do something."

Another example is "climate change." We grasp for explanations of devastating meteorological events such a massive hurricanes striking populated areas, or drought-fueled fires. Events such as the St. Croix Hurricane of 1772 (link) (dispute as to whether it was August 31 or September 14), but one way or another paved way for Alexander Hamilton to wind up in New York, and the Year Without Summer of 1816, see 200 years ago, we endured a 'year without a summer', are examples of overwhelming events that occurred long ago, before carbon emissions. Yet we seek to control these events, as if we could.

Basically, this harks back to the worship of the rain gods, Manitou, Great Spirit, Athena, Zeus and their less primitive Abrahamic successors. People feel a need to be in control, even when they are not. Nature is just too overwhelming.

Great Debate Question: When do we conclude that a plague such as Covid or climate change cannot be overcome, but impacts must be mitigated?


8-16-2020


You don't sound spoiled at all. Frankly as you know I consider this Covid situation to be badly over-hyped. The epidemiologists have succeeded in getting the leaders of the country and indeed most countries of the world to pull the plug on the world economy with little thought as to necessity or consequences. I would almost say that someone should go to jail, but I don't think anyone's intentions were bad.
As I've posted before I think that severe obesity, smoking and to a lesser extent age badly exacerbates the disease. The footage from Italy and China was scary but even New York has had nothing like that degree of carnage. During the first ten days of March the attitude flipped from lack of concern to panic. My wife and I went to theater on February 26, and it was business as usual. Monday, March 9 at work, same story. On March 11 my work colleague was on vacation in California, didn't feel well and decided to come home early in case the doo-doo hit the fan. On March 12, 2020 I went to Court, in person, for the last time. My drive back into NYC was unusually fast and the parking easy. On March 13, 2020 I took the train in and it was like a ghost town; train empty and train parking just too easy. The next day I went to my last movie. During that movie my office emailed everyone that they were shutting down, and we should remove our firm laptops and key files.

I went in the next night and one of my friends helped out. Then we went to a diner. Two days later Governor Cuomo shut down everything; work and restaurants. This was March 16, 2020. At the end of that week he shut down even "non-essential" construction, then schools, then playgrounds. That was March 20 and 23.

A week later, there was a warm Sunday and everyone was out playing tennis. Next day that was locked.

My difficulty with all of that is that there was no thought to getting any of it reopened, and no real timeline.


5-26-2020


This is a picture of the New York Times headline on Sunday, May 24, 2020. This isn't fear-mongering? It preceded three or so pages of single-print listing of approximately 98,000 Covid deaths. There were no adjustments for co-morbidity. Or listing of the far greater number of asymptomatic or recovered people.






5-16-2020

A psychologist with whom I communicate once or so a month said that I am suffering from anxiety, not depression, about Covid. Let me explain.

I am not the least bit worried about getting sick. I am pretty sure I was multiply exposed during the early days, February and March, before the lockdown. I attended synagogue in and near New Rochelle, New York. At that point I felt it was hitting close to home. I rode the same Metro North train ridden by the first known seriously ill (he has since recovered) victim. My wife and I went to Broadway shows as late as February 27, 2020. I feel pretty sure I won't personally be a victim.

I remain employed, working remotely, at 75% salary. Not bad since I am not commuting. I am somewhat concerned it won't last.

But my upset (call it either anxiety or depression) is that we are surrendering to a "new normal" with no in-person school, no Broadway theater, symphony orchestra or culture. In short the things that make New York City great. Or have. The Ivy League Schools will turn into high-price server farms. Ditto synagogues and churches. In short, no more real civil society. We are heading for a society where holding a door open for someone, or retrieving a dropped object, is regarded as a threat, not a courtesy. Where carefully nurtured friendships dissolve.

It's no only that these things are happening; it's that except in "red states" there is little resistance. Small business people are losing their business with no champions but bankruptcy lawyers like myself. I wonder, really, what is happening to the country that I have loved for for 63 years plus a month. Anxiety or depression? Does it matter?


5-16-2020

I have a proposal that will stop this scourge dead in its tracks.

1. Declare grocery and food businesses, including delivery, non-essential;
2. Close all stores, including grocery stores, Big Box stores, etc. to in-store, takeout and delivery service;
3. Close all restaurants and delicatessens to take-out or delivery; and
4. Suspend running water and electricity to any person or business that violates.

This would be for a non-extendable 30-45 day period, and start on 12 hours notice. Because of the seriousness of this situation, read Governor Inslee, Whitmer, Cuomo, Newsome and Pritzker on this, violators would be subject to termination with prejudice. They will never spread a virus again.

The only exceptions should be 911 responders and mortuary services. This will almost certainly solve the coronavirus problem. If you favor life over stock market value you have to agree this will work.


5-14-2020

I decided to Google the question of why some people almost never get sick and came up with this seemingly reputable article fro Webmd, 6 Secrets of Super-Healthy People (link). The highlights seem to be:

1. Moderate exercise (rarely mentioned with regard to Covid)
2. Frequent hand-washing (mentioned frequently);
3. Healthy eating;
4. Sleep (more than six hours, ideally more than seven)
5. Two more factors I'm leaving out. You can read for yourselves

I always had the instinct that these were important, as well as not smoking. I wonder if the list of people who have gotten more than moderately sick with Covid or died been canvassed for the above traits.


5-10-2020
Should We Sell of Univ. Campuses, School Sites, Church & Temple Grounds?

As this article, Why the Road to Reopening New York Will Be So Hard, any return to normal conditions is probably a fantasy -- dreaming in Technicolor, as you will. Whether for reasons of politics, medicine, panic or some blend of the two, it is impossible to imagine a return to use of educational and religious facilities in ways that don't feel more funereal than lockdown.

Imagine school classrooms where children are not allowed to talk to each other, where they are plexiglassed off or seated six feet apart. Or religious facilities where pews have markers so that people are sitting more than average height distance from each other. And where a word with clergy, whether for comfort or for some question about ritual is flatly out of the question?

Schools and religious bodies have futures; as domain names and websites. We need server farms, which occupy much less pricey real estate than the sprawling grounds of a college campus. We won't need the army of workers needed to tend such facilities, reducing costs for some and consigning others to unemployment.

Similarly, blocks of streets crowded with restaurants could be turned into government distribution facilities or housing for the homeless. This may be one way to re-imagine the post-Covid future.

5-9-2020

Truly excellent. I think some of these people have long felt that we are "wasteful" and want to change our lifestyle. People would not bite because of the threat of "climate change." This is their chance. Another post which I excerpted says it all:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zippyman

The act of entering the store for the purposes of buying non-essential items (like paint or carpet) turns the entire store into a vector for disease. That means people who actually do need something are put at additional unnecessary risk of infection due to the selfishness of the idiots. Buying paint, especially custom-mixed paint is the apex of stupidity. You’re forcing employees who should be safe at home to cater to your selfish needs at their expense and risk.

The intent of the order was to provide a skeleton crew for minimum operations.

The effect of allowing the depot to run wild with non-necessary sales is that they’re getting an unfair advantage over smaller stores and that makes it even more likely that they’ll have even less competition when life returns to normal. Hopefully the idiots really really like the depot, because they’re likely to not have any competition at all when this is over. And, btw, that’s not capitalism, nor is it a free market.

My response was:

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbgusa

Excuse me. You are describing the conditions that prisoners live under because they are being punished for committing a crime. These days we treat hardened criminals better.

So people should essentially be on meager rations and have no enjoyment until Gretchen Whitmer is good and ready?

This is the chance that these change advocates have been waiting for. It is not new. It existed in the early 1970s, with the Club of Rome report, affiliated with MIT (link, excerpt below):

Quote:

Originally Posted by Club of Rome book extract

The message of this book still holds today: The earth’s interlocking resources – the global system of nature in which we all live – probably cannot support present rates of economic and population growth much beyond the year 2100, if that long, even with advanced technology. In the summer of 1970, an international team of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology began a study of the implications of continued worldwide growth. They examined the five basic factors that determine and, in their interactions, ultimately limit growth on this planet-population increase, agricultural production, nonrenewable resource depletion, industrial output, and pollution generation.

So I draw a direct line from the Club of Rome mentality, borne of guilt from the post-WW II growth and affluence, to the steps taken recently, nominally against the pandemic.


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5-7-2020

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York mandated that nursing homes accept Covid+ patients. 5000, or about 25% of the Covid deaths in NYS, were in nursing homes. We know that Cuomo and DeBlasio wanted to inflate the number of reported deaths. Is it possible that Cuomo wanted to "inflate" the number of actual deaths to benefit the Democratic Party (a party of which I am a proud member).

See Cuomo under fire for response to Covid-19 at nursing homes. Excerpt:
I would hate to think that this lethal mistake was deliberate. Who knows?


5-6-2020

I think the politicization process has devolved into MAGA and TDS, i.e. "Orange Man bad" camps.

There are other forces at work as well. Many doctors in the trenches are prescribing HCQ. The bureaucratic "doctors" such as Fauci loath it, not because of TDS but because the helter-skelter process of popularizing its on-label use for Covid-19 (it already was an approved medicine) threatens to upend the well-developed study and testing mechanism for medication. Such an exception from process is of course necessary in this circumstance. When you have a tornado or Cat. 4 hurricane approaching, you get out the way; you don't study its wind dynamics. Medical personnel at the CDC and FDA are rightly afraid that the exception will swallow many rules created by Thalidomide and sheer medical quackery, i.e. "alternative medicine."

But if we have any hope of mitigating the devastation caused by the pandemic, to quote Bob Dylan, the advice to the bureaucracy is "don't stand in the hallway don't block up the hall, for he who gets hurt will be he who has stalled...."*

*Bob Dylan - "The Times They Are A'changin'", © 1963.


4-25-2020

I am not a Michigander. I will try to explain though I am a liberal Democrat and not one "protesting with [my] MAGA hats and Trump float." My state is New York but my "beef" is similar.

The various "shelter in place", "safer at home" and "pause" orders did not drop out of the sky as virtually identical documents, with minor deviations. The thought process was to exercise control, i.e. that governors were doing things and entering orders because they can. Trump's declarations of disaster on March 13, 2020 gave them that ability. Sheltering in place and socially isolating were originally justified based on the necessity to "flatten the curve" and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. That objective was met relatively rapidly, for reasons I will explore below. As soon as the peaking in hospitalizations and diagnoses was in sight (deaths obviously lag behind) rather than rescinding or easing these orders, the goalposts were moved, to an unattainable snuffing out of the virus. That is the basis of the resentment; that people felt that they were lied to as the orders were being put in place.

Why was the "flattening" of the curve and peaking foreseeable; it is well known that viruses spread rapidly through any given population, indeed the exposure is virtually universal. This is being borne out by recent testing, even though those tests are tilted towards not showing antibodies. Few of those exposed are sickened to the degree of hospitalization or even diagnosis. Thus, the lowering of the death rate from a ruinous 4% to a rate below 0.5%.

People may not agree on or even know the details; they know that the carnage is not occurring on their street corners, but primarily on cruise ships, military ships and nursing homes. It is still grievously serious but one handles these hot spots by concentrating on them. One does beef up the ability of the health care system to deal with those who get sick. And not shutting everyone down.