Warming hole posts
Posted 04-17-2017 at 01:58 PM by SFX
For a topic
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
They have been going back and forth as to why the Midwest has not warmed as much as the models expected.
One reason they theorize is aerosols
“Warming Hole” Over the Eastern U.S. Due to Air Pollution : Image of the Day
Another theory is agricultural techniques are sending more moisture into the air, so fewer extremely hot days, but higher dew points...
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...ooling-midwest
One reason they theorize is aerosols
“Warming Hole” Over the Eastern U.S. Due to Air Pollution : Image of the Day
Another theory is agricultural techniques are sending more moisture into the air, so fewer extremely hot days, but higher dew points...
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...ooling-midwest
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
A great lengthy research on Elsevier's Evidence Based Climate Science in 2010
There is a relationship between strength, duration and frequency of El Nino and La Nina events depending on the PDO. The PDO is a multi decadal cycle. Meaning the phase of the PDO doesn't change daily or on a yearly basis. It takes decades.
We are now in the cold mode, favoring La Ninas. Cold and warm PDOs and El Ninos have the opposite patterns for temperature and rainfall/snowfall in the mean.
"three UK researchers report that the model: (1) "significantly underestimates changes in some regions, particularly in winter across large parts of Asia," (2) "has a tendency to overestimate changes in the frequency of hot days in both the [a] winter and [b] summer seasons over [c] most regions, and in the [d] global and [e] hemispheric mean," (3) "also overestimates changes in the frequency of warm winter days on larger scales," while with respect to changes in cold extremes the model (4) "does underestimate them in some regions," while (5) "there are some regions with trends of the opposite sign." In addition, they say that (6) "the particular regional trend pattern, often also referred to as the 'warming hole,' is not evident in the simulated trend pattern," citing Pan et al. (2004), Kunkel et al. (2006), Portmann et al. (2009) and Meehl et al. (2012). And they indicate that (8) "the model shows a tendency to significantly overestimate changes in warm daytime extremes, particularly in summer."
Take a look at the negative PNA and La Nina combo. Its a torch trap for the East and a nice cool trough for the west.
But don't forget... weather and climate is from a marriage of things. Like a deck of cards, you need more than one card for a full deck or a winning hand.
There is a relationship between strength, duration and frequency of El Nino and La Nina events depending on the PDO. The PDO is a multi decadal cycle. Meaning the phase of the PDO doesn't change daily or on a yearly basis. It takes decades.
We are now in the cold mode, favoring La Ninas. Cold and warm PDOs and El Ninos have the opposite patterns for temperature and rainfall/snowfall in the mean.
"three UK researchers report that the model: (1) "significantly underestimates changes in some regions, particularly in winter across large parts of Asia," (2) "has a tendency to overestimate changes in the frequency of hot days in both the [a] winter and [b] summer seasons over [c] most regions, and in the [d] global and [e] hemispheric mean," (3) "also overestimates changes in the frequency of warm winter days on larger scales," while with respect to changes in cold extremes the model (4) "does underestimate them in some regions," while (5) "there are some regions with trends of the opposite sign." In addition, they say that (6) "the particular regional trend pattern, often also referred to as the 'warming hole,' is not evident in the simulated trend pattern," citing Pan et al. (2004), Kunkel et al. (2006), Portmann et al. (2009) and Meehl et al. (2012). And they indicate that (8) "the model shows a tendency to significantly overestimate changes in warm daytime extremes, particularly in summer."
Take a look at the negative PNA and La Nina combo. Its a torch trap for the East and a nice cool trough for the west.
But don't forget... weather and climate is from a marriage of things. Like a deck of cards, you need more than one card for a full deck or a winning hand.
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