Rating team success in the new millenium
Posted 12-07-2016 at 03:50 PM by chadgates
I came across an old excel spreadsheet I created back in 2011 where I ranked teams through the first decade of the new millennium (2001-2010), and thought it would be good to update all of the data and see where all the teams are now.
I will post ten at a time in here and will also post in a blog so I can keep everything together in a much neater fashion than the forum allows you to.
This formula takes the overall winning % since 2001 and then adds modifiers as follows:
1) Winning/losing season bonus/penalty - 1 point bonus for every winning season, minus 1 point for every losing season and no modifier for finishing .500.
2) Great/terrible season bonus/penalty - 5 point bonus for each “great season” defined as 10 wins or more, minus 5 points for each “terrible season” defined as 10 or more losses.
3) Unbeaten/winless bonus/penalty - An additional 5 point bonus for each unbeaten season, and an additional 5 point deduction for each winless season.
4) Bowl success bonus– 5 point bonus for a non-New Years Six (BCS) bowl win and minus 5 points for a bowl loss.
5) New Years Six (BCS) bowl bonus – 3 point bonus for a BCS bowl appearance and an additional 7 point bonus for winning a BCS bowl. So winning a BCS bowl is worth twice as much as a regular bowl, and just getting selected as one of the best teams in the nation nets at least 3 points.
6) Conference Champion bonus is worth 20 points for a Power 5 conference and 10 points for a Group of 5 conference. ** NOTE ** This bonus counts the former Big East as a Power 5 conference since they used to get an auto bid to the BCS bowls. Additionally if there are “co-champions” in a conference each team who earned a share of the championship gets the bonus.
7) Lastly, the most defining “stat” of a successful program is National Championships which is rewarded with a 100 point bonus.
In order to qualify for the rankings a team must have played at least 100 games.
This requirement excludes the following teams:
South Alabama 50 games
Georgia State 48 games
Massachusetts 48 games
Texas–San Antonio 48 games
Texas State San Marcos 48 games
Georgia Southern 36 games
Appalachian State 25 games
Charlotte 24 games
Old Dominion 24 games
So now let’s start at the bottom and work our way up to #1. These rankings are current through the 2015 season and do not yet include the 2016 season. After the NCG I will post an updated list through the 2016 season.
I will post ten at a time in here and will also post in a blog so I can keep everything together in a much neater fashion than the forum allows you to.
This formula takes the overall winning % since 2001 and then adds modifiers as follows:
1) Winning/losing season bonus/penalty - 1 point bonus for every winning season, minus 1 point for every losing season and no modifier for finishing .500.
2) Great/terrible season bonus/penalty - 5 point bonus for each “great season” defined as 10 wins or more, minus 5 points for each “terrible season” defined as 10 or more losses.
3) Unbeaten/winless bonus/penalty - An additional 5 point bonus for each unbeaten season, and an additional 5 point deduction for each winless season.
4) Bowl success bonus– 5 point bonus for a non-New Years Six (BCS) bowl win and minus 5 points for a bowl loss.
5) New Years Six (BCS) bowl bonus – 3 point bonus for a BCS bowl appearance and an additional 7 point bonus for winning a BCS bowl. So winning a BCS bowl is worth twice as much as a regular bowl, and just getting selected as one of the best teams in the nation nets at least 3 points.
6) Conference Champion bonus is worth 20 points for a Power 5 conference and 10 points for a Group of 5 conference. ** NOTE ** This bonus counts the former Big East as a Power 5 conference since they used to get an auto bid to the BCS bowls. Additionally if there are “co-champions” in a conference each team who earned a share of the championship gets the bonus.
7) Lastly, the most defining “stat” of a successful program is National Championships which is rewarded with a 100 point bonus.
In order to qualify for the rankings a team must have played at least 100 games.
This requirement excludes the following teams:
South Alabama 50 games
Georgia State 48 games
Massachusetts 48 games
Texas–San Antonio 48 games
Texas State San Marcos 48 games
Georgia Southern 36 games
Appalachian State 25 games
Charlotte 24 games
Old Dominion 24 games
So now let’s start at the bottom and work our way up to #1. These rankings are current through the 2015 season and do not yet include the 2016 season. After the NCG I will post an updated list through the 2016 season.
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