DI Trust Fund Fail Dates [Fixed]
Posted 10-22-2012 at 07:11 PM by Mircea
Updated 10-30-2012 at 09:33 PM by Mircea (Getting Aggravated)
Updated 10-30-2012 at 09:33 PM by Mircea (Getting Aggravated)
Hopefully this is fixed. I could have sworn I had them as attachments. Anyway, the graphs were there, and then they weren't. I don't know what that means. I guess I'll have to have someone come over and cast out demons from my laptop or something.
Okay, I have to apologize because it took me way longer than a few days to get his together.
The problem was the data was FUBAR. I'm looking through the Tables and other data (in addition to the annual trustee report there's long-range demographic and economic assumptions plus other files like their justification for their 2013 Budget) and much to my chagrin, I see conflicting numbers.
For example in Table VI.F8 (page 214) they claim their interest income for 2021 is $134.6 Billion and then in Table VI.C6 (page 176) they claim it will be $133 Billion.
You can imagine my shock and surprise as well as my utter contempt and disgust for bureaucrats. Sorry, but from my perspective it just seems like I've spent most of my life cleaning up the messes bureaucrats made (if not here then in other countries).
I had to spend some time trying track this stuff down and you know what? I never did. I'm not an accountant, you know. The differences aren't that great. I mean we're talking discrepancies of 0.5% to as much as 3.2% for the numbers. Is it that big of a deal? I guess it isn't in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn't really affect the outcomes.
So, you're probably asking, "What am I looking at and why should I care?"
These graphs show when each of the Trust Funds -- the OADI Trust Fund, the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund and the OASI Trust Funds will become exhausted, under different sets of economic assumptions.
I'm ignoring the SMI Trust Funds (Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D) for these discussions, since they're largely self-funding and they're solvent over the long-term.
I'm not really thrilled with the three different economic assumptions. Both Medicare and Social Security characterize them as "Low-Cost," "Intermediate" and High-Cost." There are many flaws in those assumptions which I'll point out.
In addition to those 3 economic assumptions, I've added two others, once I call the "2.89%" and the other the "2.0%" and I'll explain those when we get their.
So first to fail is the OADI Trust Fund which covers Social Security Disability (SSDI).
From the graph, you can see that the Fund is depleted mid-year 2014, 2015 and 2016 for the three economic assumptions.
As things currently stand, tax income is $80 Billion with an estimated $7 Billion for October, giving two months to make up just over $13 Billion to hit the Intermediate projection of $101.4 Billion for the year.
That's great, except that for 2012 there's supposed to be 10.9 Million SSDI plus 45.9 Million OASI beneficiaries for a total of 56.8 Million beneficiaries and as of August 2012, there were 56.2 Million beneficiaries. At present rates, by year's end you'll be over 57 Million beneficiaries.
As some of you already know, I'm predicting 3rd/4th Quarter 2014. That will be affected by recession, which would be 2nd/3rd Quarter 2013 at the earliest. I generally won't waste time crunching the numbers unless I see declining GDP and declining payroll for two consecutive quarters and you're already below 2.5% GDP. Consumer spending patterns along with hiring patterns in the 4th Quarter tend to skew the numbers (due to the Holidays).
What happens when the OADI Trust Fund is exhausted? Nothing visible. OASI will pick up the slack, but note that will cause you to burn through the OASI Trust Fund faster.
Okay, I have to apologize because it took me way longer than a few days to get his together.
The problem was the data was FUBAR. I'm looking through the Tables and other data (in addition to the annual trustee report there's long-range demographic and economic assumptions plus other files like their justification for their 2013 Budget) and much to my chagrin, I see conflicting numbers.
For example in Table VI.F8 (page 214) they claim their interest income for 2021 is $134.6 Billion and then in Table VI.C6 (page 176) they claim it will be $133 Billion.
You can imagine my shock and surprise as well as my utter contempt and disgust for bureaucrats. Sorry, but from my perspective it just seems like I've spent most of my life cleaning up the messes bureaucrats made (if not here then in other countries).
I had to spend some time trying track this stuff down and you know what? I never did. I'm not an accountant, you know. The differences aren't that great. I mean we're talking discrepancies of 0.5% to as much as 3.2% for the numbers. Is it that big of a deal? I guess it isn't in the grand scheme of things, and it doesn't really affect the outcomes.
So, you're probably asking, "What am I looking at and why should I care?"
These graphs show when each of the Trust Funds -- the OADI Trust Fund, the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund and the OASI Trust Funds will become exhausted, under different sets of economic assumptions.
I'm ignoring the SMI Trust Funds (Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D) for these discussions, since they're largely self-funding and they're solvent over the long-term.
I'm not really thrilled with the three different economic assumptions. Both Medicare and Social Security characterize them as "Low-Cost," "Intermediate" and High-Cost." There are many flaws in those assumptions which I'll point out.
In addition to those 3 economic assumptions, I've added two others, once I call the "2.89%" and the other the "2.0%" and I'll explain those when we get their.
So first to fail is the OADI Trust Fund which covers Social Security Disability (SSDI).
From the graph, you can see that the Fund is depleted mid-year 2014, 2015 and 2016 for the three economic assumptions.
As things currently stand, tax income is $80 Billion with an estimated $7 Billion for October, giving two months to make up just over $13 Billion to hit the Intermediate projection of $101.4 Billion for the year.
That's great, except that for 2012 there's supposed to be 10.9 Million SSDI plus 45.9 Million OASI beneficiaries for a total of 56.8 Million beneficiaries and as of August 2012, there were 56.2 Million beneficiaries. At present rates, by year's end you'll be over 57 Million beneficiaries.
As some of you already know, I'm predicting 3rd/4th Quarter 2014. That will be affected by recession, which would be 2nd/3rd Quarter 2013 at the earliest. I generally won't waste time crunching the numbers unless I see declining GDP and declining payroll for two consecutive quarters and you're already below 2.5% GDP. Consumer spending patterns along with hiring patterns in the 4th Quarter tend to skew the numbers (due to the Holidays).
What happens when the OADI Trust Fund is exhausted? Nothing visible. OASI will pick up the slack, but note that will cause you to burn through the OASI Trust Fund faster.
Total Comments 1
Comments
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Well, how stupid am I? I'll get on that.Quote:Originally Posted by Del Boy
Your graphs are not showing up. Thanks for all your contributions. You can delete this after you fix it.
Thanking...
MirceaPosted 10-30-2012 at 03:32 PM by Mircea
