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A lot of models are already flashing their signals for a transition to a significant la nina to develop later in the year. Many of the strongest la ninas, like 1973-74 and 1988-89, have followed strong or super el nino seasons. Our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, also followed a strong el nino.
Do you think we will get a historic strong la nina (like 1973-74 and 1988-89) or will it just be another moderate la nina (like the 3 recent seasons 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23)?
1955-56: 2nd year of a triple-dip la nina
1973-74: historically strong la nina, which followed the 1972-73 super el nino
1975-76: 3rd year of the triple-dip la nina that started in 1973-74
1988-89: historically strong la nina, which followed the 1986-88 double dip el nino
1998-99: followed the 1997-98 super el nino
1999-2000: strong la nina repeat/continuation from 1998-99
2007-08
2010-11: followed the 2009-10 strong el nino
Moderate la ninas
1949-50: followed 1947-48 and 1948-49 enso neutral seasons
1970-71: began a stretch of 5 la nina seasons in 6 years
1984-85: second year of a double dip la nina, which followed the 1982-83 super el nino
1995-96
2011-12: second year of a double dip la nina that started in 2010-11
2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23: triple dip la nina
Supposed to go through April. How long do they normally last?
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Models were calling this El Nino a super Nino early on too but it ended up being just a borderline strong El Nino.
...except that we're talking about La Nina here, which is scientifically documented to become stronger and more common as the climate changes due to Man's activities.
It will be another record wet year for sure in AUS with no ski season to speak of
:^ (
La Ninas have definitely become more common since 2005-06 or 2007-08. We've been in a secular la nina phase since then (contrast that to the secular el nino phase that began in 1976-77 and lasted through 2004-05 or 2006-07). That said, they haven't gotten any stronger. The strongest la ninas on record remain 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both over 30 years ago), and we haven't had a strong la nina since 2010-11 (this is the longest such gap since 1955-56 and 1973-74).
La Ninas have definitely become more common since 2005-06 or 2007-08. We've been in a secular la nina phase since then (contrast that to the secular el nino phase that began in 1976-77 and lasted through 2004-05 or 2006-07). That said, they haven't gotten any stronger. The strongest la ninas on record remain 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both over 30 years ago), and we haven't had a strong la nina since 2010-11 (this is the longest such gap since 1955-56 and 1973-74).
The effects of La Nina are stronger due to climate change (heavier, longer-lasting rain events in AUS), but the ENSO phase itself is not necessarily stronger due to an overall increase in SSTs. And this overall increase in SSTs is what made El Nino fade out of existence (warmer oceans across the board = more rain = Nino effectively null in AUS).
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