Possibly Long Track Tornadoes.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0420.html
Discussion from HPC
SUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z-20Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ERN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NRN MS THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS. THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE
BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS A STRONG LLJ ADVECTS UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY MULTILAYER CLOUDS
INCLUDING STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS...AND THE STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MAY EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. AN AXIS OF 1500-2500
J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A PRE-FRONTAL BELT OF ASCENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EWD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES FROM WRN ARKANSAS THROUGH NWRN
TX. MEANWHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER JET AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS APPEAR MAXIMIZED ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION.
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