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The problem is that Kingsport has nothing to offer.
If you're a conservative suburbanite coming from outside of Chicago, Detroit, Boston, insert big market blue city here, what does Kingsport offer? At ~55,000 residents, it's not a real small town. You're not going to that feeing there.
It's conservative, but feels extremely behind the times (even compared to the rest of this conservative region), in terms of a lack of economic development and attraction of new businesses. Keep in mind that many of the people moving to this area, even if they don't consciously notice it, are used to the Costcos, Whole Foods, and similarly affluent and upscale businesses where they are from.
There isn't any of that in Kingsport. Johnson City can offer that on a small scale, with a real mall, Publix, Earthfare, and some boutique places to fill in some gaps. Keep in mind that Publix is basically everywhere in Florida, and every semi-affluent place from North Carolina on south. It's not really a marker of affluence, but this area has such bad grocery stores that it's basically the gold standard here.
Anyone from any area of consequence will be horrified at IPCH and HVMC. If you're from a decent area, you'd be horrified by the medical care anywhere before you get to Asheville or Knoxville, at least. Crime in Kingsport is terrible. Walking through the HVMC lobby these days looks like the walking dead - tons of strung out addicts, no one appears to work, face and neck tattoos seem to be all over half the patrons.
Bristol is doing better, but it's starting to get a homeless/bum/addict problem as well. Half the issue that KPD, BPD, and SCSO are extremely aggressive, arresting anyone at any time, even if it is false arrest, to keep inmate numbers high to justify the new jail.
I just had a cousin who moved back to Kingsport from East Nashville. His KPT rent is now 80% of what his NVL rent was, but he was fired, so didn't have much of a choice. His salary is about half of what it was in Nashville.
Like you said, wages/housing in Kingsport especially is totally out of whack. Years ago, the low wages were at least somewhat offset by low housing costs. These days, wages remain in the toilet, among the worst in a low wage state, and housing costs are up tremendously. It's not sustainable. I think a lot of these pandemic-era refugees will go back to better places once they realize how bad Kingsport actually is.
This video came out two days ago, I'm sure many of the same issues impacting southeast Kentucky are applicable to the Tri-Cities and all the surrounding rural areas. It mostly covers Monticello, Somerset, Whitley City areas.
Didn't watch that video, but that dude's shirt is one of the main issues. People in Appalachia have two choices socially, culturally, psychologically: drugs or Jesus. Anyone with three brain cells will reject the latter.
The region deserves a lot better. They (or we, I could say, as a 6th+ generation East Tennessean) deserve a rational explanation grounded in responsive government and financial re-investment of their own tax and natural resource dollars. Without any of those things, the region will continue to fail hard for its own.
That's why the housing market is growing pretty much only growing from outside demand.
This video came out two days ago, I'm sure many of the same issues impacting southeast Kentucky are applicable to the Tri-Cities and all the surrounding rural areas. It mostly covers Monticello, Somerset, Whitley City areas.
The county jail in Sullivan County, TN has more inmates than Knox County, TN, even though Knox has about three times the population. Like I mentioned, the police here are very aggressive. There are very few resources here to help those with addiction issues get back to a productive life. People cycle through the local county jails all the times, and the root causes are never addressed.
Personally, I don't see how the effects of drugs and related crimes in places like Kingsport that are just awash in these behaviors won't eventually trickle down to the housing market. Who wants to live somewhere like that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabogitlu
Didn't watch that video, but that dude's shirt is one of the main issues. People in Appalachia have two choices socially, culturally, psychologically: drugs or Jesus. Anyone with three brain cells will reject the latter.
The region deserves a lot better. They (or we, I could say, as a 6th+ generation East Tennessean) deserve a rational explanation grounded in responsive government and financial re-investment of their own tax and natural resource dollars. Without any of those things, the region will continue to fail hard for its own.
That's why the housing market is growing pretty much only growing from outside demand.
Yep.
The job market here for professionals has been bad for years. If you are a local kid who grew up here, then move away to college, or even just go to ETSU, what is there to draw you back or keep you here? If you can find a job, it'll likely pay much less than what you'd make in Knoxville, Nashville, Charlotte, etc. With housing prices where they are, the area isn't the value it used to be.
In general, higher-earning younger people move away from here. The younger people who remain are generally not the high earning, driven types who would be trying to grab that brass ring in a major city. There's some inward migration of older people and retirees for tax reasons, but I don't see a lot of organic growth from younger people with families.
Brain drain is really hard to reverse. I had to move to a HCOL to get experience and network connections to get into the real money world. But now that I work remotely, I wouldn't generally consider returning to NETN. The level of amenity just isn't there. Compared to even my parents' generation or just a bit older who were in the labor force in the 1980s with very stable and well-paying jobs in the local market, the decline is hard to watch. The region needs another New Deal-style investment package, but that is politically likely not happening.
Brain drain is really hard to reverse. I had to move to a HCOL to get experience and network connections to get into the real money world. But now that I work remotely, I wouldn't generally consider returning to NETN. The level of amenity just isn't there. Compared to even my parents' generation or just a bit older who were in the labor force in the 1980s with very stable and well-paying jobs in the local market, the decline is hard to watch. The region needs another New Deal-style investment package, but that is politically likely not happening.
The "amenity"*thing is another huge issue.
Sure, you have the outdoors opportunities, but lots of people aren't even into that. I was putting in a kayak after work yesterday on South Holston Lake and didn't even see one boater in sight going across the 421 bridge. There were a few teenagers at the campground I put in at yesterday, and a few campers grilling.
I'm close enough to the AT to hike little segments if I leave before 4:30 in the summer. It's rare that I run into other hikers out there.
The bottom line is that if someone is going to live a typical suburban lifestyle, there's no reason to live here vs. anywhere else. Many other places will have better day-to-day amenities without the healthcare, economic, and geographic isolation issues.
The problem is that Kingsport has nothing to offer.
If you're a conservative suburbanite coming from outside of Chicago, Detroit, Boston, insert big market blue city here, what does Kingsport offer? At ~55,000 residents, it's not a real small town. You're not going to that feeing there.
It's conservative, but feels extremely behind the times (even compared to the rest of this conservative region), in terms of a lack of economic development and attraction of new businesses. Keep in mind that many of the people moving to this area, even if they don't consciously notice it, are used to the Costcos, Whole Foods, and similarly affluent and upscale businesses where they are from.
There isn't any of that in Kingsport. Johnson City can offer that on a small scale, with a real mall, Publix, Earthfare, and some boutique places to fill in some gaps. Keep in mind that Publix is basically everywhere in Florida, and every semi-affluent place from North Carolina on south. It's not really a marker of affluence, but this area has such bad grocery stores that it's basically the gold standard here.
Anyone from any area of consequence will be horrified at IPCH and HVMC. If you're from a decent area, you'd be horrified by the medical care anywhere before you get to Asheville or Knoxville, at least. Crime in Kingsport is terrible. Walking through the HVMC lobby these days looks like the walking dead - tons of strung out addicts, no one appears to work, face and neck tattoos seem to be all over half the patrons.
Bristol is doing better, but it's starting to get a homeless/bum/addict problem as well. Half the issue that KPD, BPD, and SCSO are extremely aggressive, arresting anyone at any time, even if it is false arrest, to keep inmate numbers high to justify the new jail.
I just had a cousin who moved back to Kingsport from East Nashville. His KPT rent is now 80% of what his NVL rent was, but he was fired, so didn't have much of a choice. His salary is about half of what it was in Nashville.
Like you said, wages/housing in Kingsport especially is totally out of whack. Years ago, the low wages were at least somewhat offset by low housing costs. These days, wages remain in the toilet, among the worst in a low wage state, and housing costs are up tremendously. It's not sustainable. I think a lot of these pandemic-era refugees will go back to better places once they realize how bad Kingsport actually is.
I think Kingsport is a town that offers church communities, school functions, school sports (high school and under) and some decent parks and outdoor activities.
It has Eastman Chemical, which pays well, but also helps pollute the city and region badly. And the paper mill downtown churns out that smell which is something I still can mentally remember smelling, today.
Kingsport's restaurants and retail has just been drained away the past decade or two. Despite steady population growth, and the potential to be neck and neck with Johnson City's offerings, the city gets passed over time and time again by big retailers and good restaurant options.
My relatives all drive to Johnson City or Bristol for better options in everything. They mainly shop in Kingsport at that Target, and I will say the Kingsport Target is probably the best in the tri-cities, oddly. (in terms of size and layout and access)
Kingsport's downtown is actually laid out the best, and there is so so much potential there. But everytime I would go down there, it feels so conservative, and so stale and kind of boring. There were a few bar options and a few good restaurants, but all in all, it lacked the energy and diversity of Bristol or JC.
Kingsport needs a change in city leadership, to get development to come to their city in the form of good retail, good restaurants and good options for the not-over-65 crowd.
Back on the housing surge in the Tri Cities, and Johnson City: I am starting to see a startingly rapid slowdown in housing construction. There is plenty of low-end apartment and townhouse stuff up and about to be finished, but the pipeline is very limited after that.
New stuff is not out of the ground in large part, and i see builders with virtually no work on the horizon other than finishing what they have started, and stuff that may be built in the future.
The current situation reminds me of the 2011/2012 period when there was a huge volume of activity, and the belief that the tri cities was "different" as the rest of the Nation slowed down. The slowdown was harsh, and abrupt. It happened in literally a matter of a few weeks.
I am seeing anecdotal evidence that we are entering a similar period.
Will housing hold their prices. I'm of the school of thought that they will. Most of the good information on this page is anecdotes. It's certainly helpful at times, but anecdotes are not data. The current outlook from the UT Economics Dept. to the governor says Tennessee is better position for continued growth than most states. Yes, central Tennessee will get most of that growth, but NE Tenn. has seen its growth rate increase from about 0.02% per year to about 0.06 per year. A growth rate of 5% to 10% per decade is needed to sustain the current population. Most of that growth has gone to Washington Co. and Johnson City followed by Sullivan Co. and Kingsport. Hawkins and Johnson Co. also had high growth rates. Census data show that the new residents are not mostly retirees as some think. And while the number of people from California, Fla. and Washingtion State have showed up, they represent only 3% of the new residents, according to Census data. Yes, many of the new retirees are conservatives, but interviews with them show that most moved for quality of life and affordable housing, not political reasons. Although local land and home prices have increased, they remain well below the national levels. The Q3 Housing Market Risk Analysis from ATTOM Data Solutions ranks Sullivan and Washington counties among the least likely in Tennessee and the nation to see a housing market downturn.
Here's a link to that third-party anlaysis. https://donfenley.com/2023/12/13/hou...erable-in-u-s/
As far as buying in a coupe of years, it's impossible to say what they market will look like because the only market you can depend on is the one that exist when you're looking to buy.
Back on the housing surge in the Tri Cities, and Johnson City: I am starting to see a startingly rapid slowdown in housing construction. There is plenty of low-end apartment and townhouse stuff up and about to be finished, but the pipeline is very limited after that.
New stuff is not out of the ground in large part, and i see builders with virtually no work on the horizon other than finishing what they have started, and stuff that may be built in the future.
The current situation reminds me of the 2011/2012 period when there was a huge volume of activity, and the belief that the tri cities was "different" as the rest of the Nation slowed down. The slowdown was harsh, and abrupt. It happened in literally a matter of a few weeks.
I am seeing anecdotal evidence that we are entering a similar period.
But even those DR Horton townhomes and similar are starting in the $250k range. That's still a lot for a lot of typical area families.
There was this huge surge of interest in this area (and far flung, smaller metros in general) in the immediate pandemic period, but with things back to normal, that seems to be fading.
There has been some interest in out-of-area retirees and remote workers, but is that enough to sustain a decent amount of growth?
I live in Bristol. The neighbor beside me is a contracted MD with Ballad. He's here because of the Ballad staffing issues. He likes the area is fine, but he can't stand Ballad now that he works there. Once his contract is up, he's going back to TX. The wife in the couple on the other side of him is a travel nurse at BRMC, and they're headed back to MN after her contract is up. I hear this kind of thing all the time - especially with people working in travel healthcare - they like the area OK, but there are other issues where they wouldn't want to live here permanently. There seems to be a lot of churn with the out-of-area people.
When I look at the local economy, I don't see much fundamentally different than in 2019, pre-COVID. Wages, especially at the very bottom, have risen, but so has everything else.
I talked to two friends of mine in JC this week who are looking for homes. One is 25 with a girlfriend around his age. They have a budget up to $180k for an SFH. She works in downtown Johnson City - he works in Erwin. They're having a hard time finding anything in their range - anything at that price point seems to be either have a lot of issues, needs updates, or if it's decent, gets gobbled up nearly immediately. Sure, they'd have more options in other cities, but they're trying to keep the commute reasonable.
The other is 31, single, and can only go to about $150k - again, very low inventory, issues with the properties, etc. He accepted another job and may leave the area altogether, but I don't where he's going to find that's cheaper that has any quality of life at all.
If you're a typical local couple making $60k or so, a $250k DR Horton townhome is probably out of reach. You're having to scramble for whatever you can find.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Page2
Will housing hold their prices. I'm of the school of thought that they will. Most of the good information on this page is anecdotes. It's certainly helpful at times, but anecdotes are not data. The current outlook from the UT Economics Dept. to the governor says Tennessee is better position for continued growth than most states. Yes, central Tennessee will get most of that growth, but NE Tenn. has seen its growth rate increase from about 0.02% per year to about 0.06 per year. A growth rate of 5% to 10% per decade is needed to sustain the current population. Most of that growth has gone to Washington Co. and Johnson City followed by Sullivan Co. and Kingsport. Hawkins and Johnson Co. also had high growth rates. Census data show that the new residents are not mostly retirees as some think. And while the number of people from California, Fla. and Washingtion State have showed up, they represent only 3% of the new residents, according to Census data. Yes, many of the new retirees are conservatives, but interviews with them show that most moved for quality of life and affordable housing, not political reasons. Although local land and home prices have increased, they remain well below the national levels. The Q3 Housing Market Risk Analysis from ATTOM Data Solutions ranks Sullivan and Washington counties among the least likely in Tennessee and the nation to see a housing market downturn.
Here's a link to that third-party anlaysis. https://donfenley.com/2023/12/13/hou...erable-in-u-s/
As far as buying in a coupe of years, it's impossible to say what they market will look like because the only market you can depend on is the one that exist when you're looking to buy.
Agree - Johnson City is easily the most well-positioned place in the area for the foreseeable future. I don't see any value declines there.
I can't imagine that somewhere like Hawkins County would do great over time - probably track inflation at best. Most of the communities there are not any good shape.
I split time between here and Asheville. I work remotely for a local government in western NC. I have a budget up to $275k. I can afford Johnson City comfortably. Anything within thirty minutes or so of Asheville is going to be tough for me budget-wise. I can easily see Unicoi County and even Johnson City getting some spillover from people priced out of WNC who want to be close to the mountains/Asheville, but still want some kind of urban environment.
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