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“20 people a day …” leaving the state. “15,000 net loss last year” … Negative numbers for seven years straight.
Yet real estate prices holding and rising. (I’m not surprised.)
So, what I’m wondering is how this trend will play out for efficiency-level long-term rentals, given the crackdowns on private vacation rental business.
The wealthy (worldwide) naturally continue to scoop up the nicer properties … purchase and rentals both.
But where does the slow exodus of low-wage worker-bees and Social Security retirees leave the little one room + bath efficiency studio market? Not the condotels. The ohana conversion units all over the place.
“20 people a day …” leaving the state. “15,000 net loss last year” … Negative numbers for seven years straight.
Yet real estate prices holding and rising. (I’m not surprised.)
So, what I’m wondering is how this trend will play out for efficiency-level long-term rentals, given the crackdowns on private vacation rental business.
The wealthy (worldwide) naturally continue to scoop up the nicer properties … purchase and rentals both.
But where does the slow exodus of low-wage worker-bees and Social Security retirees leave the little one room + bath efficiency studio market? Not the condotels. The ohana conversion units all over the place.
Which article says it is low-wage workers? I’ve been in under the impression Hawaii is losing the workers it can’t afford to lose, STEM workers. How are burger flippers getting off island? And then what they do, go back to burger flipping on the mainland?
I’ve provided several links in the past - Hawaii local home ownership is high compared to California, Florida, and Arizona, etc and the ones that do buy from out of state aren’t buying middle class homes.
Which article says it is low-wage workers? I’ve been in under the impression Hawaii is losing the workers it can’t afford to lose, STEM workers. How are burger flippers getting off island? And then what they do, go back to burger flipping on the mainland?
I’ve provided several links in the past - Hawaii local home ownership is high compared to California, Florida, and Arizona, etc and the ones that do buy from out of state aren’t buying middle class homes.
I wasn’t intending to limit my purview to just low-incomes leaving. I am wondering mostly, though, of all the vacancies created, what’s the effect on the efficiency ohana type rental units. The mid and upper quality and price properties are holding their pace in the market.
But lower income folks are not moving to Hawaii for the dream anymore it seems. Just anecdotally it’s my observation that we don’t see the former parade of inquiry from dreamers hoping to find a budget place in Hawaii. Are Mom and Pop rentals running short of prospects yet? Are low-end rentals sitting longer? Any downward pressure on rates starting to show?
But lower income folks are not moving to Hawaii for the dream anymore it seems. Just anecdotally it’s my observation that we don’t see the former parade of inquiry from dreamers hoping to find a budget place in Hawaii. Are Mom and Pop rentals running short of prospects yet? Are low-end rentals sitting longer? Any downward pressure on rates starting to show?
Personal opinion. The dreamer I have $10,000 posts/threads were mostly fake.
On Oahu, after initially dipping on the Airbnb crackdown, rents are steadily climbing.
The demand for housing (and corresponding prices) is not determined by the number of people residing here, it is determined by the number of households.
Hawaii has the highest percentage of multi-generational housing in the nation. Meaning there is a significant component of housing demand from those locals living in these multi-generational homes. That demand is always there. Many locals would prefer to move out and be independent within their own abode, but simply cannot afford it. A significant number of new construction housing units can be filled by just those living in these homes.
Another significant driving force underlying (further) decreases in household size and corresponding increases in housing demand is the consistent uptick in the number of people living alone. An aging demographic and reluctance of younger generations to get married and have kids translates to higher demand of smaller housing units.
Now, demand for smaller housing units does not mean demand for ALL smaller housing units. Demand will be much stronger for new, modern and safe housing units in desirable locations like the urban core and East Honolulu. As indicated and evidenced in many European and Asian cities that are suffering from shrinking populations, there has been a pronounced exodus from rural or middle class communities far from work and entertainment centers (i.e. greater than 1 hour commutes) but maintaining ever-increasing demand for housing in urban locations or suburban locations that lie within 30 mins of city centers. So while population declines can result in lower housing prices, the increases in housing prices in more desirable locations often offsets those losses realized in less desirable locations.
Of course there are countless other factors that will drive demand for housing here including new job/education opportunities, regulations, cost to build new housing, tax changes, evolving demographics, work from home, technology, environment, etc. The variables are nearly endless. But generally speaking, a decline in population has not been correlated to reduced housing demand at least for housing in those areas which are already considered desirable by most. Those areas in Hawaii that are currently not considered desirable by most will likely see significant decline in demand should the population continue to decrease over time.
The demand for housing (and corresponding prices) is not determined by the number of people residing here, it is determined by the number of households.
Another significant driving force underlying (further) decreases in household size and corresponding increases in housing demand is the consistent uptick in the number of people living alone. An aging demographic and reluctance of younger generations to get married and have kids translates to higher demand of smaller housing units...
Yes, this same phenomenon has been noted by local demographers here in Juneau, AK.
Population is stagnant, if not declining slightly, yet housing demand has actually increased. Fewer young people, especially school age, more geezers like myself.
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