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Good concept, but of course you conveniently left out the bigger / opposite side of the story, where Trump was ahead in the polls, but behind in the actual election results where it really mattered.
One side will never tell the full story, so more childish partisan smokescreening.
Good concept, but of course you conveniently left out the bigger / opposite side of the story, where Trump was ahead in the polls, but behind in the actual election results where it really mattered.
One side will never tell the full story, so more childish partisan smokescreening.
Feel free to add any example of that.
I haven't even looked at most states, so I have no idea what you mean.
That's why we've got a thread, so everyone can post...
You don't understand anything about statistical inference. All of that is meaningless.
Except this is not a thread about statistical inference, this is a comparison between polls and results, an exact replica of the data provided in each link at RealClearPolling.
I guess you don't understand the data presented at RealClearPolling.
2024 isn't 2020. However, today Trump is certainly running much better in the battleground states than in the last election.
My guess is... yes. Trumps numbers will improve in most of the battleground states on election day. How much? I don't know but suspect we’ll see an improvement.
Trump also seems to be doing better with Black and Hispanic voters. How much better? Not sure but his AA support improved from 6% in 2016 to 12% in 2020. If he hits 15-16% this year and along with a bump in Hispanic support this can make the difference between winning/losing in the swing states.
3rd party candidates? Recent battleground polls show they more often than not they help Trump.
RCP talks about the recent polls and they don’t see Trump losing support. What they suggest is Dems are coming home.
There were some states Trump outperformed the polling average, some states that Biden outperformed the polling average. You also had PA with the polling average being dead on.
Except this is not a thread about statistical inference, this is a comparison between polls and results, an exact replica of the data provided in each link at RealClearPolling.
I guess you don't understand the data presented at RealClearPolling.
The problem is that the RCP average doesn't take into consideration the margin of error for each poll that in average, please correct me if I am wrong. While a good rule of thumb is plus or minus 3 points, depending on the methodology, that number could be as high as 5 or 6 points.
The question is how to you want to measure "Poll got it right". Should it be "state predicted for a candidate and the candidate won or should it be "poll said candidate should win by X amount and he won by more or less than that number"
I did the quick math and if you took the lower range of the polls that made up the final RCP average in WI, you will find that Biden was up by 3.2 so the average was off by less than 3 points, not 6.
2024 isn't 2020. However, today Trump is certainly running much better in the battleground states than in the last election.
My guess is... yes. Trumps numbers will improve in most of the battleground states on election day. How much? I don't know but suspect we’ll see an improvement.
Trump also seems to be doing better with Black and Hispanic voters. How much better? Not sure but his AA support improved from 6% in 2016 to 12% in 2020. If he hits 15-16% this year and along with a bump in Hispanic support this can make the difference between winning/losing in the swing states.
3rd party candidates? Recent battleground polls show they more often than not they help Trump.
RCP talks about the recent polls and they don’t see Trump losing support. What they suggest is Dems are coming home.
The thing that I'm not sure has been factored in, is that although we have the same candidates running we don't have the same conditions from 2020 so there may be a variety of factors that can and will affect what happens from the opening of early voting until election day.
While I generally don't think that poll respondents lie in their responses, I would be interested in seeing if anyone is conducting any experiments to see if poll respondents are trying to manipulate the results.
The thing that I'm not sure has been factored in, is that although we have the same candidates running we don't have the same conditions from 2020 so there may be a variety of factors that can and will affect what happens from the opening of early voting until election day.
While I generally don't think that poll respondents lie in their responses, I would be interested in seeing if anyone is conducting any experiments to see if poll respondents are trying to manipulate the results.
A phenomenon discussed in 2016 - Trump voters who were too ashamed to admit it - may be at work in a different way this year. These days it is hard to find a Trump supporter that WON'T tell anyone who is listening. I suspect though that many Biden supporters are closet Biden supporters - especially Republicans who simply can't take any more of Trump along with married women. They will quietly fill in the Biden oval in swing states and give Biden a victory very much like last time.
Pollsters will all slap themselves on the back because by election day they will have all regressed to the mean. We all know that will be an outcome of +/-3% and within everyone's margin of error.
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