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It all depends. If Trump is the Republican nominee for president he will drag both parties down with him come 2024.
If DeSantis is the Nominee the pubs will probably control both houses. Yes, Trump is that toxic and the past 3 elections agree with me.
Republicans should be able to take the Senate in 2024 as Dem seats in OH, WV and MT are up, and these states are red. Trump would likely be still popular in those states.
DeSantis could help win more swing states (than Trump) though.
Republicans should be able to take the Senate in 2024 as Dem seats in OH, WV and MT are up, and these states are red. Trump would likely be still popular in those states.
DeSantis could help win more swing states (than Trump) though.
All seats mentioned are occupied by the Dems. They will be competitive though.
All three are incumbents which gives them some leverage.
Larry Sabato is pontificating in this article, that the Dems are in trouble.
The Dems are defending a lot more Senate seats in 2024 than they were in 2022.
Joe Manchin's going along w/ Biden's $1.7T wasteful spending pork barrell bill, may have sealed his fate.
Yep, the Dems will have many more seats to defend in 2024 than they had in 2022 so on that basis, the Repubs chances of winning a majority should be good but it also depends on the national mood, and the respective Presidential candidates and their favorability.
All seats mentioned are occupied by the Dems. They will be competitive though.
All three are incumbents which gives them some leverage.
If the incumbant is an old white rich dude who was seen as doing a crappy job, the leverage won't stand up to a decent challenger who is not a rich old white dude.
I've seen reports Desantis is exploring a run but I'm somewhat skeptical he will run. I think he's having too much fun running Flordia.
If he does run Trump will go full schoolyard bully on him and tear the Republican party apart possibly starting his own MAGA party.
DeSantis has a long time horizon, since he's only 42 years old. I could see him taking a pass this time.
Problem is, if DeSantis decides to try in 2028, he'd possibly be facing an encumbant who would be seen as much more favorable, than Joe hand-in-the-cookie-jar Biden. Biden will be decimated by the next 22 months of Pub investigations/hearings, that he wont be able to run, & the Dems bench is weak. Gavin Newsom's dirty laundry is toxic....he took money from a guy who he knew raped his wife! Too few votes for that.
So, if DeSantis doesn't run now, in a wide open field (Biden won't be running again), then he'd have to wait 10 more years. He'd have at least 5 years of downtime w/o any income. He could run as Senator, then not complete his 6 year term to run in 2028. These are the things he's weighing right now.
Current Senate seats that are up for election and not guaranteed wins:
Arizona, PVI R+2, incumbent D but incumbent recently declared as independent
Michigan, PVI R+1, incumbent D retiring
Montana, PVI R+11, incumbent D since 2007
Nevada, PVI R+1, incumbent D
Ohio, PVI R+6, incumbent D since 2007
Pennsylvania, PVI R+2, incumbent D since 2007
West Virginia, PVI R+22, incumbent D since 2010
Seven states in play, Republicans need two plus the presidency, or three without.
IMO, the best bets for Republican pickup are Arizona, Michigan, Nevada. If, like the 2022 mid-term elections for Arizona and Michigan, the Republican nominees come from the MAGA clown show then the GOP might get only the Nevada US Senate seat. Arizona will be a wild-card, with a probably three-way general election among the Democratic nominee, the Republican nominee, and the independent incumbent.
Tougher to pick up Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or West Virginia - if these seats were swayed by their Cook PVI then the GOP would have picked up these seats in 2018.
NOTE: Cook PVI ratings taken from Wikipedia article on 2024 US Senate elections - may be stale data.
Conclusion: Republicans will pick up at most three seats, but only if they put up good nominees (known as RINOs to the MAGA faction currently driving the GOP party bus). Republicans might pick up one seat if they keep going MAGA.
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Too few votes for that.
