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Russia has a huge agriculture plain and energy enough for itself. China doesn't.
China's export based economy may keep the peace for a very long time. Can a country who imports 65% of its energy and a large percentage of its food afford to endure the sanctions Russia is feeling?... I wouldn't think so.
Cutting off Russian imports and exports mean doing without Russian raw materials; they had to finished good to speak of. And, as we are seeing, raw materials are available from lots of sources.
But China! They export tons of finished goods and import tons of raw materials and food. How could they possibly do battle with Europe and North America?
I think China has their eye on Eastern Russia, which has the oil, gas and water China needs. Taiwan, I think (I hope) is a sideshow intended to ramp up Chinese unity, the way Trump's illegal immigration did.
If China get blockaded, then China might have shortages of certain goods like semiconductors and milk, but in terms of necessities, then China should be fine. It's the world biggest factory, it has many trade partners that will trade with China no matter what and they have strong control over its population and economy and has many ways to reduce food and energy consumption.
In my opinion, China can survive years of sea blockade before problems become very serious. Chinese leaders probably believe they can outlast the USA, but I disagree. It is in the USAs interests to blockade China and let them slowly suffocate as it won't cost the USA much, China is too weak to break the blockade and it won't result in Taiwan being bombed to the ground.
If China get blockaded, then China might have shortages of certain goods like semiconductors and milk, but in terms of necessities, then China should be fine. It's the world biggest factory, it has many trade partners that will trade with China no matter what and they have strong control over its population and economy and has many ways to reduce food and energy consumption.
In my opinion, China can survive years of sea blockade before problems become very serious. Chinese leaders probably believe they can outlast the USA, but I disagree. It is in the USAs interests to blockade China and let them slowly suffocate as it won't cost the USA much, China is too weak to break the blockade and it won't result in Taiwan being bombed to the ground.
I disagree. Pulling off a blockade against China especially one that last for years would be very difficult. First the U.S. would have to get other countries to comply. As you mentioned there are lot of countries that do business with China and make billions. Unless the U.S. would be willing to bankroll these countries losses, I don't see how they would willingly cooperate. The U.S. could always send ships to patrol the straits of Malacca or other sea lane choke points, but the Chinese aren't dumb, and the developed the world's largest rocket force for this reason. Their anti-ship missiles particularly the DF-21 (carrier killer) make pulling off such blockades deadly. So yeah, implementing such a strategy would come at great cost.
Russians don't have appetite for loss either. They initially thought the war would be easy, they will take Kyiv in the first week and the rest of Ukraine will follow. When the war has actually started, then they covered up any loss that was possible and made the public angry whenever it wasn't.
I expect China to be similar. Chinese also thought it would be an easy win for Russia, but unlike Russians they have now realized that Russia is struggling. However, they did not learn from these lessons at home, and they still think it will be easy to invade Taiwan and they will just have to deal with western sanctions.
Hence, I expect them to end up in the same trap. They will initially celebrate any gain of territory, but as the war drags on then they have to keep fighting to avoid loss of face. Just like Russia, they will cover up any losses that are possible and make the public angry if it is not. If they are about to lose, then they will get desperate and their tolerance for loss will surge.
Man you got some great intel. You knew Russia and China expected an easy win in the conflict. Who needs the CIA, just listen to you and other CD posters. You are correct about cover up. Every country does in war. Doesn't matter the side. It's called controlling the narrative. Truth is the first casualty in war.
So many people are quick to call China a treat to world peace. They were able to get former arch enemies to negotiate peace and cooperation. China put out a peace plan to end the Russian - Ukraine war. Meanwhile the U.S. has expanded its military presence in Eastern Europe and the Philippians, is threatening Cambodia and Solomon Islands, while also sending weapons to Ukraine to keep the war going on for "as long as it takes" just to weaken an adversary. Somehow people think China is the aggressive one and a threat to world peace.
So many people are quick to call China a treat to world peace. They were able to get former arch enemies to negotiate peace and cooperation. China put out a peace plan to end the Russian - Ukraine war. Meanwhile the U.S. has expanded its military presence in Eastern Europe and the Philippians, is threatening Cambodia and Solomon Islands, while also sending weapons to Ukraine to keep the war going on for "as long as it takes" just to weaken an adversary. Somehow people think China is the aggressive one and a threat to world peace.
Do you honestly think you’re being clever with your attempts at skewing information. Without weapons, Ukraine would have been in a lot of trouble. Russia is the one “keeping the war going”. If they want it to end, they should pull out. End of story.
Do you honestly think you’re being clever with your attempts at skewing information. Without weapons, Ukraine would have been in a lot of trouble. Russia is the one “keeping the war going”. If they want it to end, they should pull out. End of story.
Not being cleaver at all, simply stating facts.
Who decided to push NATO borders eastward despite repeated warnings, setting the stage for this conflict?
Who prevented a possible peace deal at the start of the war?
Who continues to pump weapons into the conflict with no condition for negotiation.
Not here to argue if Russia was justified in its invasion, but at this point in time, it's clear the U.S. along with the U.K., Poland, and the Baltics are using Ukraine as proxy to weaken Russia. No interest in seeing the bloodbath come to end at least under the current administrations.
I disagree. Pulling off a blockade against China especially one that last for years would be very difficult. First the U.S. would have to get other countries to comply. As you mentioned there are lot of countries that do business with China and make billions. Unless the U.S. would be willing to bankroll these countries losses, I don't see how they would willingly cooperate.
That is not how blockades work. The USA does not need to get other countries to comply and it does not need to bankroll those countries losses.
In addition, they don't have to stop all goods. We saw that in the Ukraine war, where they made an exception for Russian gas. The flow of gas only stopped after Russia cut it off.
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The U.S. could always send ships to patrol the straits of Malacca or other sea lane choke points, but the Chinese aren't dumb, and the developed the world's largest rocket force for this reason. Their anti-ship missiles particularly the DF-21 (carrier killer) make pulling off such blockades deadly. So yeah, implementing such a strategy would come at great cost.
The refusal to back down on covid, the crazy lockdowns and the sudden crackdowns that later got reversed tell me otherwise. Chinese leaders are dumb, because they are letting ideology drive their decisions.
Sure, China might try to break the blockade, but that is exactly what the USA wants. China will then be far away from its own shores fighting against the worlds strongest navy with the support of the richest countries in the world. China is very likely to lose in that scenario.
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Man you got some great intel. You knew Russia and China expected an easy win in the conflict. Who needs the CIA, just listen to you and other CD posters.
I was in China when the war broke out. It wasn't exactly hard to know what Chinese thought about the war. They were openly cheering for Russia and predicting that Ukraine will fall in a few days/weeks. The same was true in Russia.
Who continues to pump weapons into the conflict with no condition for negotiation.
Not here to argue if Russia was justified in its invasion, but at this point in time, it's clear the U.S. along with the U.K., Poland, and the Baltics are using Ukraine as proxy to weaken Russia. No interest in seeing the bloodbath come to end at least under the current administrations.
You don't respect national sovereignty?
Russia does not have the the right to tell other countries to not join NATO
Russia does not have the right to demand a peace deal that favors them.
And Russia certainly does not have the right to invade a neighbor just because the west refuses to agree to Russia's demands. And if Russia does it anyway, then it is only fair that we help the country being invaded to defend themselves.
Letting Russia win like you want, would double the refugee wave to Europe and it would give Russia more resources that it can use against a future war with Europe. You already said that Russia is upset about former USSR countries joining NATO, so they will be at risk if Russia wins.
But China! They export tons of finished goods and import tons of raw materials and food. How could they possibly do battle with Europe and North America?
They don't have to export those goods, they could redirect those factories to produce goods for the military instead.
China imports are mostly raw materials and high tech goods. China can live without high-tech goods, Russia is doing it right now. In terms of raw materials, then less exports would also mean less imports. In addition, China could ramp up domestic production, they could reduce consumption on things that are not war related such as building apartments and they could buy more from their allies such as Russia, Afghanistan and Iran.
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Originally Posted by Listener2307
I think China has their eye on Eastern Russia, which has the oil, gas and water China needs. Taiwan, I think (I hope) is a sideshow intended to ramp up Chinese unity, the way Trump's illegal immigration did.
Russia is an ally of China, they don't need to invade Russia as they already give China the resources they need. China has lots of money, they are not going to invade Russia to lower the cost of natural resources.
Taiwan might be a sideshow, but in that case it is to distract the public from the problems at home, not to prepare an invasion against Russia. However, the rhetoric against Taiwan is becoming more and more aggressive and China is making real preparations for a war, so it is quite possible that China is serious when it says that it plans to annex Taiwan.
Do you honestly think you’re being clever with your attempts at skewing information. Without weapons, Ukraine would have been in a lot of trouble. Russia is the one “keeping the war going”. If they want it to end, they should pull out. End of story.
That Chinese wumao sure works hard for his country.
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