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Puerto Rico is a terrible analogy. China invading Taiwan is like North Korea invading South Korea. Hong Kong had its sovereignty transferred from Britain to Mainland China in 1997. No such transfer ever happened with Taiwan. The same Republic has existed in Taiwan since 1945, has its own army capable of inflicting massive damage onto mainland China in case of an invasion and there no authority to discuss Taiwan’s sovereignty on their behalf. If the PLA makes the foolish mistake to invade Taiwan, the US army will defend them as they are committed to do so. The CCP will essentially be causing WW3.
Puerto Rico is a terrible analogy. China invading Taiwan is like North Korea invading South Korea. Hong Kong had its sovereignty transferred from Britain to Mainland China in 1997. No such transfer ever happened with Taiwan. The same Republic has existed in Taiwan since 1945, has its own army capable of inflicting massive damage onto mainland China in case of an invasion and there no authority to discuss Taiwan’s sovereignty on their behalf. If the PLA makes the foolish mistake to invade Taiwan, the US army will defend them as they are committed to do so. The CCP will essentially be causing WW3.
To be a world war, other countries must join. What other countries would join (as in commit troops)? The U.S. has agreement, but we have broken agreements in the past. For the U.S. to join, it must know it could win the war decisively and easily. Otherwise, Americans will likely not tolerate a high death toll for Taiwan. The main reason Taiwan exist independent of China is because the U.S. wanted to give a ********* to the CCP for opposing them in the Korean war.
With that said I still put the chance of invasion as very unlikely. All sides despite their sable rattling know the stakes. The U.S. is not prepared to lose tens to hundreds of thousands of lives. China doesn't desire to halt its 40 years of economic progress, and Taiwan doesn't want to end up like Ukraine (consistently at war and split). So long as the redlines are respected on each side there will not be a issue in the near term.
I think the chance is increasingly unlikely given the unraveling thats happening in China. Things are getting desperate there and unfortunately they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I think Chairman Xi has a lot more to worry about inside of China and he is increasingly turning inward. Desperate people do desperate things so there is always a chance but I think its very unlikely given the state of their military. I think he is going to have enough trouble holding on to power to expend it on something as foolish as going after Taiwan. It would be really tragic and likely to result in millions of dead.
I am really surprised that TSMC is investing so much to build chips in the US. I would think that would undercut their security. As it stands, the US basically has no choice but to get involved if China tried to take Taiwan (if things went South for Taiwan).
I think the chance is increasingly unlikely given the unraveling thats happening in China. Things are getting desperate there and unfortunately they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I think Chairman Xi has a lot more to worry about inside of China and he is increasingly turning inward. Desperate people do desperate things so there is always a chance but I think its very unlikely given the state of their military. I think he is going to have enough trouble holding on to power to expend it on something as foolish as going after Taiwan. It would be really tragic and likely to result in millions of dead.
I am really surprised that TSMC is investing so much to build chips in the US. I would think that would undercut their security. As it stands, the US basically has no choice but to get involved if China tried to take Taiwan (if things went South for Taiwan).
Sadly the unravelling, if that is indeed what is happening , it would be fair to expect ever more of their corrupt and/or criminals seeking haven in other countries to continue their corrupt practices.
But if things really did unravel, it may be also fair to say, that China may well seek a distraction , by creating a situation either with Tiawan or Philippines to bring the nationalistic sentiment of most the population together to focus on a manufactured outside threat.
Sadly the unravelling, if that is indeed what is happening , it would be fair to expect ever more of their corrupt and/or criminals seeking haven in other countries to continue their corrupt practices.
But if things really did unravel, it may be also fair to say, that China may well seek a distraction , by creating a situation either with Tiawan or Philippines to bring the nationalistic sentiment of most the population together to focus on a manufactured outside threat.
After careful consideration, I will reverse course and say it's highly likely that Xi will attack Taiwan in the next two years. My biggest mistake was thinking that China's economy was essential to Xi and that he would attempt to save it. After thinking on this for a few days, recent events clicked together for me. Instead of assuming, we should list our facts and look for a logical conclusion.
1. The new national security laws that criminalize regular business activity
2. The confiscation of business assets via anti-corruption charges
3. The increasingly hostile environment to foreign capital and businesses.
4. Xi's speeches constantly promise to do it. In one particular, he says it's his life's goal to retake Taiwan.
5. Joint military exercises building up to it.
6. Due to the heavy import dependency, they have to be able to break out of the island chain. The obvious spot for that is Taiwan.
There is only one conclusion: they are preparing to take action. Given his recent meeting with company executives, I suspect that the rapid decline of the Chinese economy has taken them by surprise. It's also equally apparent that Xi has leaned into his inner Maoist and will purge the capitalists. He cares little about the Chinese economy beyond what it can provide him and his military.
I don't think the military is capable of taking it yet. They need more time, but they don't have much time left.
He is busy taking anyone out who could challenge him and shifting to a hardline Maoist stance.
The question becomes does he try to cripple the US Pacific fleet to slow down response to his attempt to take Taiwan. It sounds crazy on the face of it, but he can't allow a Ukraine situation to develop, and the US would certainly try it. It would be a Japanese WWII-level mistake because it would immediately drag NATO, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines into it.
The sanctions alone will put them on a clock because soon they won't have enough oil or food. The level of sanctions could make him do something more desperate.
Another point is he could use a North Korean invasion of South Korea to divide US/Japanese support.
Any companies still trying to do business with China will lose everything they have there, and they thoroughly deserve it. Whether Xi attempts to take Taiwan, he has extracted whatever usefulness he saw in capitalism.
The early warning sign is completing a grand Army/Navy/Air Force combined amphibious assault drill. The last warning will be the build-up of troops and ships on the Fujian coast.
Last edited by justanokie; 04-09-2024 at 09:21 PM..
After careful consideration, I will reverse course and say it's highly likely that Xi will attack Taiwan in the next two years. My biggest mistake was thinking that China's economy was essential to Xi and that he would attempt to save it. After thinking on this for a few days, recent events clicked together for me. Instead of assuming, we should list our facts and look for a logical conclusion.
1. The new national security laws that criminalize regular business activity
2. The confiscation of business assets via anti-corruption charges
3. The increasingly hostile environment to foreign capital and businesses.
4. Xi's speeches constantly promise to do it. In one particular, he says it's his life's goal to retake Taiwan.
5. Joint military exercises building up to it.
6. Due to the heavy import dependency, they have to be able to break out of the island chain. The obvious spot for that is Taiwan.
There is only one conclusion: they are preparing to take action. Given his recent meeting with company executives, I suspect that the rapid decline of the Chinese economy has taken them by surprise. It's also equally apparent that Xi has leaned into his inner Maoist and will purge the capitalists. He cares little about the Chinese economy beyond what it can provide him and his military.
I don't think the military is capable of taking it yet. They need more time, but they don't have much time left.
He is busy taking anyone out who could challenge him and shifting to a hardline Maoist stance.
The question becomes does he try to cripple the US Pacific fleet to slow down response to his attempt to take Taiwan. It sounds crazy on the face of it, but he can't allow a Ukraine situation to develop, and the US would certainly try it. It would be a Japanese WWII-level mistake because it would immediately drag NATO, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines into it.
The sanctions alone will put them on a clock because soon they won't have enough oil or food. The level of sanctions could make him do something more desperate.
Another point is he could use a North Korean invasion of South Korea to divide US/Japanese support.
Any companies still trying to do business with China will lose everything they have there, and they thoroughly deserve it. Whether Xi attempts to take Taiwan, he has extracted whatever usefulness he saw in capitalism.
The early warning sign is completing a grand Army/Navy/Air Force combined amphibious assault drill. The last warning will be the build-up of troops and ships on the Fujian coast.
First and foremost is the preservation of power by the CCP. China is very much aware the damage they can inflict on many foreign economies.
It is close to an outage that China was permitted to gain so much influence in the economic and political structure of so much of the world.
It has long been clear of Chinese intent to but influence (corrupt those in position's of influence) Chinese abroad are expected to 'work' for the state when abroad. Have we imported a lot of fifth columnists in countries where Chinese immigration flourished?
This would include the drug trade, as well as the alleged use of International Students of Chinese ethnicity being involved in manufacture and delivery. Pay back for the Opium Wars perhaps?
China is supporting Russia more overtly over more recent months , strengthening an alliance that will most likely suite China's longer term interests.
One wonders if China is strengthening its position, with a possible Trump return to The White House?
He being no friend of China , may well influence that country's to cement Russian relations, then work on Iran and PDK for added back up.
I suspect The US will more likely not go to war over Taiwan. It recognised The One China Policy, but besides that it would be a war with a great risk of not winning.
The matter of defending The Philippines would be an interesting one. I suspect neither country will push to hard. Perhaps a skirmish here and there , with The US pulling The Philippines back into line before the point of no return is reached.
China is not, and never has been our friend. Those politicians that sold us out to the situation we find ourselves in today, should be called to account. Obviously little chance of that.
If Xi gives the chip plants a couple of years to come online, then it's doubtful the US will get directly involved if not attacked. That tech is so important that I don't see how there is any choice but to get involved if it happens too soon.
Also, allowing China to take Taiwan will give them a lot of influence over Southeast Asia. They are notorious for contesting borders for arbitrary reasons, so I doubt he will stop with Taiwan. It will be like Putin; Xi will start talking about all the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, etc.
I think the first option will be to sanction them, and when the oil and food stop flowing, it will be like Japan all over. Xi can't allow that.
So, I think the odds of the US getting involved are pretty good.
If Xi gives the chip plants a couple of years to come online, then it's doubtful the US will get directly involved if not attacked. That tech is so important that I don't see how there is any choice but to get involved if it happens too soon.
Also, allowing China to take Taiwan will give them a lot of influence over Southeast Asia. They are notorious for contesting borders for arbitrary reasons, so I doubt he will stop with Taiwan. It will be like Putin; Xi will start talking about all the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, etc.
I think the first option will be to sanction them, and when the oil and food stop flowing, it will be like Japan all over. Xi can't allow that.
So, I think the odds of the US getting involved are pretty good.
I suspect PRC would only invade if felt there was no other option. More likely to probably place a sea blockade around Taiwan or something similar to force some sort of reconciliation. Unless provoked of course. China has never shyed away from stating where the line was drawn.
I doubt, even in the event of China taking by force Taiwan, that they would go further. That was the talk to get The US and allies involved in The Vietnam War.
It is nationalistic pride at stake not reginal domination by way of military. China is doing very nicely on that front already. Check out Cambodia and Laos.
I suspect The Philippes could antagonize the Chinese into some form of confrontation, probably at sea, that would more likely involve others, like The US , in a worse case scenario.
Not sure about involving too overtly ethnic Chinese in Malaysia (which appears to have good relations with China at present) The result could well be a repeat of the late sixties (racial riots and killings)
Same probably for Indonesia.
Just how countries like Australia would balance their predicament though could prove interesting. A huge Chinese population, mostly fairly recent arrivals, a trade dependance of high magnitude with China that would have severe repercussions if China turned off the tap. Fair to say some 'bought' to toe the Chinese line in high places as well.
While Australia is hardly alone in an over dependance on China, again probably fair to say probably the most vulnerable.
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