Iowa, red to blue (Clinton, Jefferson: universities, live, club)

[Cida]

These kinds of shifts are always interesting, but maybe not clear-cut.



Why Iowa turned so red when nearby states went blue
Susan Laehn, an Iowa State University political scientist who lives in the small town of Jefferson, Iowa, recounted how an issue that once would have been handled through discussions at church or the Rotary Club instead became infected with national politics.
Another issue: Brain drain. The movement of young college graduates out of Iowa and the Dakotas to the metropolises of Chicago and Minneapolis-St. Paul made a mark on the politics of all five states.
https://www.sanjuandailystar.com/pos...ates-went-blue

[lthenderson]

I think there is a much simpler explanation. Iowa is about even split, 1/3 registered Democrat, 1/3 registered Republican and 1/3 unregistered/registered Independent. I think the Republican party has catered too and received most of the Independent vote for the last decade. That can easily switch if the Democrats start doing the same, however, their focus has been to cater to the very progressive side of their party and away from the Independents.

[J Baustian]

Originally Posted by Cida

Why Iowa turned so red when nearby states went blue

Another issue: Brain drain. The movement of young college graduates out of Iowa and the Dakotas to the metropolises of Chicago and Minneapolis-St. Paul made a mark on the politics of all five states.

Iowa's population has been shrinking as a share of national population since the 1920s, due in part to mechanization of agriculture which led to smaller farm families. Paved roads made it easier to travel to major cities for work and shopping, which resulted in small towns shrinking or dying. WWII veterans had fewer incentives to go back to the farms or small towns, or even to the state of their birth.

Iowa was a very Republican state from 1860 until roughly the 1960s when it began to turn more Democratic. Franklin Roosevelt carried the state in 1932 and 1936, then Iowa returned to the Republican fold. It had 5 GOP congressmen in 1962, 4 in 1972, 3 in 1982, 4 in 1992, 4 in 2002, only 2 in 2012. Now the Iowa delegation has 4 Republicans and 0 Democrats, but two of the districts are very narrowly Republican and could go either way in future elections.

Iowans voted for Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton twice, Al Gore in 2000, and Barack Obama twice. What changed from 2012 to 2016? I don't think it can be blamed on "brain drain." More likely it has been a rejection of the economic and cultural direction of the national Democrat Party. Initially the Republicans favored mainstream conservatives: Santorum and Romney in 2012; Cruz, Rubio, and Trump essentially tied in 2016. In 2024 Trump is essentially the incumbent. The most populous counties plus Johnson and Story Counties with the state universities will vote for the Democrat candidate, while the rest of the state will vote for the Republican candidate.