East Pacific - Hilary forms August 16, 2023 (record, rainfall, night, storms)
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Wed 16Aug 11aEDT - invest 90e becomes TS Hilary in the Eastern Pacific. Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1002mb. Center about 470miles(755km) SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico. TS winds extend out to 205miles(335km) from center.
NHC predicts CAT3 by Saturday, then reaches colder waters and wind shear which will rapidly weaken.
This one is likely to bring 2 main stories:
1. Heavy rains / flooding to NW Mexico and Southwest US.
Regardless of exact track, Hilary will help drive deep moisture from the tropics into the SW US region. Several inches may fall in short time. Euro/GFS generally going with widespread 1-3in, isolated several inches higher possible for Central/South CA, Western half of AZ & Utah, Southern Nevada. Time frame Sunday/Monday.
2. Rapidly decaying tropical system near the Mexico / US border / California coast early next week.
Southern California and SW Arizona currently at 5-10% chance of seeing tropical storm force wind gust between 39 and 57mph. Euro/GFS currently show gust up to those numbers that region towards Monday.
More will be known once the storm gets its act together.
Thurs 17Aug 5aEDT/2aPDT: Quickly taking shape, ideal strengthening conditions ahead. Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 988mb. Center about 330miles(535km) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. TS winds extend out to 275miles(445km) from center.
Regardless of where tracks, heavy rains coming to SW US.
Tropical Storm Watch for Southern top of Baja Peninsula. This means TS winds of 39mph or higher are possible within 36hrs or less. These Watches and eventual Warnings will eventually be issued further up the coast in time (time based issued).
With Watches issued, storm stats will be updated every 3hrs at (2,5,8 & 11am,pmPDT/EDT) by NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NHC now calling for Cat3 by tonight or early Friday, peaking Saturday, then rapidly weakens. Currently has a 60mph over Baja Peninsular Sunday night near the US/Mexico border. Angle of approach means slightest wobble West/East in track means could landfall further up (CA) or further South (Baja).
Thurs 17Aug 11pEDT/8pPDT: Winds 125mph(205km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 952mb. Cat3. USAF air recon scheduled to check out in person Friday. NHC has forecast 150mph Friday before weakening trend begins. Will reach 'colder' (colder for storms anyways) waters further up off Baja soon after.
TS & Hurricane Watch/Warnings for portions of Baja peninsula, these will continue to move up the coast (time based issued...Watch is 48hrs or less, Warning 36hrs or less).
HEAVY rains for SW US and NW Mexico...North Baja with 15+inches(380+mm) projected, large area of 6+in(150+mm): Going to be some record rainfalls in some areas for sure!
what, if any, are the projected wildfire and Colorado River benefits of the system?
I couldn't tell you as I'm not really familiar with that region. But can monitor and see projected water heights of rivers here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ (clicking the colored dots will bring up current and predicted levels). Also the terrain complicates the winds in that region but looking at models the bulk of the rain comes through CA/NV and Western AZ/UT it appears, while winds same regions but also breezy across AZ, CO, UT and NM with less moisture to work with.
Last edited by Psychoma; 08-18-2023 at 07:00 AM..
Reason: Geography is better served after coffee.
USAF air recon now over Mexico heading towards storm for first flight into storm to see what we really have. Satellite estimates used thus far (which are typically pretty good tho). Can see their data at: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ and/or track their flight path on airplane trackers, for today's flight look up "TEAL77".
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